Assuming you’re perusing this at your leisurely weekend brunch, a typical tradition for our ‘Inside Politics’ readers, vote counting may have already begun. Millions of paper ballots, which hold the destiny of numerous candidates (hopefully enjoying a well-deserved morning rest), will probably be in the process of being tallied.
Soon, preliminary results will start to flow in, initially slow, then gaining speed, and consequently shaping our conclusions about the strenuous campaign of the past few weeks.
It’s essential to keep in mind that success won’t mean every decision was correct, nor will defeat imply that everything went awry. Yet, this is frequently how we interpret campaigns. So, before the final results completely dominate our thoughts, let’s reflect on a few significant observations from the last few weeks.
1. Campaigns are increasingly becoming more venomous, as politicians from all sides are reporting. Though the majority encounters remain amicable and receptive, it seems a growing fraction of the populace are hostile and threatening.
Keep an eye out for three aspects in the impending local and European elections, notably the inclusion of immigration on the voting slip.
There’s a disturbing trend where individuals are translating the harsh language of the online world into their real-life interactions. In a revealing chat this week, Supriya Singh, a candidate contesting in Donaghmede, shared how the intimidating and disheartening nature of canvassing surfaced. This sentiment is resonated by many candidates, irrespective of whether they were born in Ireland. This unfortunate reality is an emerging part of our current politics.
It is worth pondering whether those who previously hurled personal, scathing criticism at politicians in the Fine Gael-Labour government during the bleak austerity period might now reconsider the change in tone they created, especially as the tables have turned. It appears that everyone is affected, as was clear today when the police readied themselves to monitor the count centres closely. It’s evident that our democratic procedures, along with those who partake in them, need more resilient safeguards.
Migration has abruptly become a focal point in our political sphere, and it’s likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. It’s clear from numerous polls and plentiful anecdotal evidence that a large number of voters view migration as a significant political concern. The topic is vast, far broader than the narrow scope of asylum seekers, which is often the lens through which it is viewed. Undeniably, the housing crisis exacerbates the tensions caused by migration. This sentiment was captured by conversations with Kitty Holland in South Tallaght this week where citizens voiced their belief that the government was inducing xenophobia.
Let’s be clear, it is the duty of the individual not to harbour racist sentiments. However, it cannot be denied that the lack of foresight and an unwillingness to make unpopular, hard-hitting decisions – common failures of Irish governments – have created an environment susceptible to cultivating xenophobic narratives, thereby providing a platform for unscrupulous politicians to thrive. This unfortunate trend, I fear, may persist regardless of who is or isn’t elected today.
We’ve observed varying developments for different parties over the previous three weeks, whose outcomes we’ll see unravel in the days ahead. An undeniable shift towards independent candidates of all kinds has been observed. It’s challenging to measure the political leanings of this, as candidates vary vastly in nature and political ideology. It’s certain, though, that some harbour scepticism towards migration to some extent, whilst others simple serve as an alternative to the mainstream options.
The elephant in the room nobody wants to address is defence. As Europe grapples with the threat of a belligerent Russia on its doorstep, Ireland remains preoccupied with endless debates over neutrality, content to let others guard the frontlines. One hopes we won’t be compelled to confront the realities of the world as it stands.
Sinn Féin has experienced a rough fallout from Moscow, akin to Napoleon’s harsh withdrawal. The party may gain numerous seats yet, but there is a fundamental tremor within. A revert to fundamentals is likely on the horizon.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have been successfully competitive in elections with only nominal conflict. The upcoming general election might make this more challenging, but this previous campaign proves it to be feasible.
Labour is showing signs of vitality, albeit to a moderate extent. They appear to have outdone other left-leaning or progressive parties in the recent campaign.
Regarding environmental politics, its importance politically has dipped. Like most minor parties in power, the Green Party may possibly face a challenging day as results trickle in, a situation perhaps not as dire as some anticipate. Importantly, however, there’s an evident decline in the political eagerness to execute climate initiative across Europe during the campaign. Ursula von der Leyen’s “European Green Deal”, a mix of policy actions and funds aimed at steering the Continent towards renewable energy and sustainable methods, is facing pushback from farmers, consumers’ distaste for certain measures, the ascending populist right, and apprehension within von der Leyen’s EPP, Europe’s largest political group.
The anticipated quick progression towards decarbonisation might potentially reverse, with governments gearing up to deal with the consequences of climate change instead of focusing on prevention. They need to address both facets – over time, all governments must collaborate to decrease emission growth and habitat loss. However, extreme climate upheaval may be necessary to spur them into action. The forthcoming times for Europe appear to be less environmentally focused. This may be the most significant narrative of campaign 2024.