The far-right party, National Rally, took a commanding lead in the legislative elections held in France on Monday, marking a stark reversal for President Emmanuel Macron. The turnout was surprisingly high as voters took to the polls to elect representatives for the influential 577-seat National Assembly. A second round of voting is scheduled for 7th July.
The political landscape in France could witness a significant shift if the elections result in a majority of lawmakers opposing Macron. This could force him to appoint a prime minister from the opposition, likely to be Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the National Rally. Such an outcome could greatly affect both domestic and foreign policies of France.
If, however, a clear majority is not decided, the country could face political deadlock or instability for months. This is something President Macron – who refuses to step down – will not be able to address via new legislative elections for a year.
National Rally boasted a first in its history, leading in nationwide legislative elections, securing around 34% of the vote. Macron’s centrist Renaissance party allied with others only managed around 22%, while the New Popular Front, a left-wing party alliance, achieved about 29%. Standard conservatives secured just about 10% of the vote.
Three main observations were made from the first round of voting:
1. There was a significant increase in voters’ turnout compared to previous legislative elections in France. Generally, the legislative polls which follow shortly after presidential elections, are viewed skeptically by the public who often feel the results are predetermined.
2. However, this election was different. With Macron calling for an unexpected snap election, the voter turnout was over 65%, a considerable increase from the 47.5% recorded in the 2022 parliamentary election’s first round.
3. The high turnout reflected the voters’ understanding that their vote could meaningfully alter Macron’s presidential term.
However, predicting the final results is still a challenge.
Predictions from France’s primary pollsters indicate that the National Rally may secure between 240 to 310 seats in the upcoming voting. The New Popular Front alliance, however, is expected to receive from 150 to 200 seats and Macron’s Renaissance party and its companions are presumed to potentially win from 70 to 120 seats. To achieve an absolute majority, a party must have 289 seats.
Predicting the second round from the first round’s results has always been problematic due to the complexities of France’s electoral structure, which essentially constitutes 577 distinct races. Under specific circumstances, a candidate with over half of the first round votes is declared the outright winner. It’s projected that on Sunday a minimum of 60 candidates got elected in this manner.
The majority of the seats are usually determined during a second-round runoff by the two highest vote-earners. It’s predicted that the National Rally and its partners have advanced to a minimum of 390 run-offs, the New Popular Front to at least 370, and Macron’s middle-ground coalition to about 290. The time betwixt the two voting rounds can see significant changes.
The complexity heightens further as some districts’ run-offs feature three or even four candidates if they achieve sufficient votes, which was particularly evident on Sunday due to the increased turnout. While they were only eight three-way races in 2022, pollsters estimated over 200 in the current scenario.
Most parties, especially those leaning left, stated plans to withdraw third-place candidates to avoid far-right victories. However, there was some uncertainty on Sunday night. For instance, some partners of Macron suggested not withdrawing a candidate if it means assisting a canditate from the France Unbowed party following accusations of anti-Semitism. On the other hand, some argued for halting the far-right at all costs.
Two potential outcomes most likely are the formation of a far-right government or a parliamentary standstill. Currently, only the National Rally seems capable of securing adequate seats for an absolute majority. If this were the case, Macron would have to appoint Bardella as Prime Minister who would form his cabinet and manage domestic policies. Historically, Presidents have maintained control over matters of foreign policy and defence in such situations, although the constitution doesn’t always provide explicit guidance.
An ultra-nationalist, anti-migrant, Eurosceptic party may soon be at the helm of a nation which lies at the centre of the European experiment. Jordan Bardella is expected to lock horns with Emmanuel Macron on a variety of issues, including France’s financial investment in the European Union or approval for Ukraine during its on-going conflict with Russia.
There was a large gathering of mostly left-leaning protesters in the heart of Paris on a recent Sunday, opposing the National Rally party. If National Rally falls short of securing unilateral power–a circumstance Bardella has stated he wouldn’t wish to govern under–Macron could potentially be dealing with an ungovernable lower house. With right and left-wing factions against him, Macron’s drastically diminished central coalition could be rendered virtually ineffective.
In response, plans for more stringent rules on unemployment benefits, a move that infuriated labour unions, have been put on hold by the current administration. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, hailing from Macron’s party, virtually conceded in a recent speech that his political group would soon experience diminishing influence.
Attal highlighted that the purpose of the second elections round was to deny the ultra-rightist party an outright majority. He also stated that his party’s objective was to gain ample dominance to negotiate with other parties. Macron’s choice of prime minister in a stalemate situation, however, is still up in the air.
While collaboration could be a likely course to pursue for Macron, such a modus operandi has not typically featured in French politics, unlike its German counterparts. Nor is France accustomed to a standby administration steering the everyday affairs of the country until a political settlement is achieved, a commonplace scenario in Belgium.
The ultra-rightist category has gained considerable traction across all divisions of the public. The victory of National Rally further underlines the party’s significant evolution from an outlier in French politics to becoming a mainstream force. Their portion of the vote nearly doubled from 2022, when they earned 18.68% in the inaugural stage of the parliamentary election.
A recent Ipsos institute poll of 10,000 registered voters suggests a considerable broadening and diversification of the party’s supporter base. Specific data indicated that while a substantial 57% of the working-class vote still goes to the party, its reach is no longer limited to this demographic.
According to Ipsos, the electoral foundation of the party has “significantly expanded,” extending past its traditional sectors. Observations disclosed an upsurge of 15 to 20 percentage points among the elderly, females, individuals under 35, higher income voters and inhabitants of major cities. The polling institute proclaimed that the votes for the National Rally have become more evenly spread, resulting in a more uniformly represented electorate than in the past. This shift reflects a closer alignment with the overall French population. -The New York Times, 2024, The New York Times Company.