“Donald Trump achieved sweeping victories during the Super Tuesday primaries, consistently leaving Nikki Haley trailing in terms of delegate votes. The former US president won in territories ranging from California to Virginia, affirming a pattern of triumph that had been anticipated for some time. These successes suggest he is solidifying his path to being the Republican Party’s nominee for president.
Despite his statewide successes, some signs of weakness underpinned Trump’s victories. Certain problematic tendencies were mirrored in the suburban regions that had previously denied him a win in the 2020 presidential race.
The presidential primaries, coupled with critical congressional contests in strategic districts, many of which remain unresolved, provide a glance at voters’ preferences in both parties as the 2024 election approaches. We present five notable impressions from the outcomes.
Trump’s momentum seems unstoppable
A third of America turned out to vote last Tuesday, void of much suspense. States were swiftly announced by the media in Trump’s favour shortly after polls had closed, much like they have ever since Trump surpassed 50 per cent in the initiation caucuses in Iowa.
Vermont was an exception to the trend, where Haley marked her first state victory, having already won in Washington, D.C. during the weekend. However, this was a mere ripple amongst a wave of Trump’s landslide victories in over a dozen other states, including Alabama, where his support surpassed 80 per cent.
Haley refrained from making any public statements on Tuesday, spending the day in the private setting of her Charleston, South Carolina, home. An advisor reported that despite the heavy losses, the mood was positive, hinting that her campaign had shifted towards conveying a particular message as opposed to just gathering delegates. Subsequent news confirmed Haley’s exit from the race.
In any case, Trump has predominantly campaigned in primary states that are poised to be key battlegrounds this coming November. Just before Super Tuesday, he campaigned in North Carolina and is due to visit Georgia ahead of its March 12th primary.”
On a Tuesday, a celebration was organised by Trump in his exclusive Florida establishment, Mar-a-Lago. He has already invested nearly £231,000 or about €290 million campaign funds into the venue since his proclamation for a 2024 run, as indicated by existing reports. He announced that it’s been quite a significant evening.
An equally noteworthy evening for Trump, which involves securing the delegates necessary for confirming his candidacy, could possibly arrive on either the 12th or 19th of March.
Trump faces a potential threat in the polls involving Haley. Currently, the team backing Biden is scrutinising the performance of Haley, specifically in suburban regions, as diligently as Trump’s team, or perhaps even more so.
The most critical battleground during the autumn elections that cast its vote on that Tuesday was North Carolina. This is a state that Trump barely managed to secure during the 2020 elections. Though he successfully secured the primary with approximately 75 percent of the vote, he exhibited weak results in the counties that encompass and border the cities of Raleigh and Charlotte. His lead in Mecklenburg County was by only single-digit figures.
The exit polling data revealed a different aspect of the narrative. A substantial portion of Haley’s primary voters admitted they were voting against her opponent rather than in favour of her, suggesting an anti-Trump sentiment which may persist till November. Haley’s appeal among moderate voters remained strong even in the face of defeat, with a nearly two-to-one lead. The challenge was the moderate voters only represented about 20 percent of the votes in a GOP primary. However, in a tight general election, this voter demographic may hold more significance.
Approximately one quarter of the Republican primary voters in North Carolina communicated that they would be unhappy with Trump’s nomination.
Olivia Perez-Cubas, a spokeswoman for the Haley campaign, commented on the significant number of Republican primary voters expressing grave concerns about Trump across various states.
Trump’s victory among the faction of the Republican Party with college degrees in North Carolina was marginal, with a 51 percent to 45 percent difference. However, he overwhelmingly beat Haley with an 80 percent to 15 percent difference among Republican voters without a degree.
In conclusion, whilst Trump’s core supporters are granting him the nomination, he may require to draw in additional demographics of voters to his coalition in order to be successful in the autumn elections.
Democrats have once again caused disappointment for Biden.
Despite limited competition in the race for the Democratic nomination, Biden won convincingly across various states in the U.S. including Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia, eventually winning all 15 states. However, Biden continues to struggle with rallying his entire party behind him, with flashing lights indicating potential trouble. In Minnesota, an emerging protest vote against Biden’s backing of Israel’s military response to the Hamas-led attack in October left him with only two-thirds of the vote in Hennepin County, the heart of Minneapolis.
The protest vote built upon earlier sentiments from Michigan where 13% of Democrats voted uncommitted, suggesting that those demanding a change in Biden’s policies were increasing. Additional indications were found in places like Colorado, where the undecided vote was 7%, and North Carolina, where there was a significant number of voters who chose “no preference”. Considering that Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 2020, this opens up a chance for Biden to potentially secure victory in the state.
However, the voting tendencies of these individuals in the November election remain uncertain and could swing the results against Biden if they decide to support Trump, a third-party candidate or opt not to vote at all. Biden’s victories for the night were also slightly marred by tying the delegate race in American Samoa with entrepreneur Jason Palmer, although the place does not hold any Electoral College votes.
Meanwhile, Trump appears to be gearing up for the autumn season with speeches highlighting the issues happening under his successor Biden, particularly problems related to immigration, inflation, and foreign affairs. Surveying the current climate, Trump voiced a grave view on the state of America, saying “Frankly, our country is dying.”
Typical exaggeration was his communication method, but he successfully tapped into genuine sentiments. According to a recent survey by The New York Times and Siena College, 65% of registered voters are of the opinion that the country is on a downward trend, with 42% of these voters identifying as Democrats.
A week after both Trump and Biden visited the border, the former president repeatedly focused on the topic which has become a common feature of his speeches. He took the opportunity to defend his handling of Covid, expressing frustration at the lack of recognition. He also spoke about the sound performance of the stock market ties to his higher polling numbers compared to Joe Biden. He voiced concerns about a loss of respect for the nation internationally, claiming that the world was ridiculing the United States.
In the California Senate primaries, there were two victors: Democrat Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey, once a Los Angeles Dodger player. However, one could argue that the real loser was the top-two non-partisan primary system adopted in 2010 by Californians. It had been pitched as a tool for good governance, aimed at eliminating partisanship and fostering centrist politicians. But it turned out to be just as susceptible to partisan politics as regular primaries.
Schiff, one of the main Democratic contenders for the seat left by late Dianne Feinstein, along with his allies, poured millions into Garvey’s campaign. Despite Garvey’s limited campaign activity and slim chance of becoming the next senator due to California’s significant Democratic majority, Schiff’s strategy was to compete against a Republican in the runoff as opposed to Katie Porter, a potentially strong Democratic opponent with ample backing from progressives.
Porter’s supporters also attempted to strategise by supporting another Republican contender, Eric Early, to divert Republican votes from Garvey. As a result, marginalised Republican voters, in a state that’s becoming increasingly Democratic, did have some influence over the choice of the state’s future senator. This piece originally featured in The New York Times.