The upcoming election date seems to be more or less confirmed, causing a short pause in the political landscape as the Dáil enters a one-week hiatus before an expected last minute legislative rush to pave the way for the campaign’s official start. Simultaneously, intense efforts are ongoing as parties finalize their candidate lists and give their strategies the last minute polish.
This stands especially true for Fine Gael. The potential victory for Simon Harris and his team could be monumental – they are hoping that a strong electoral performance would secure them another full term in government. This would mean 19 uninterrupted years in authority, breaking the record set by Fianna Fáil during Éamon de Valera’s reign from 1932 to 1948. The conditions are notably varied with three Fine Gael leaders and a deputy leader establishing a variety of arrangements to maintain their hold on power since 2011.
The remarkable reality, however, is that despite this extended period, it is Simon Harris who enters this election as the most favored political leader, leading the most popular party, Fine Gael. This naturally sets them as prime targets for criticism from adversaries across all political roots. It will be specifically captivating to see the strategy of Fianna Fáil, as they target the same electorate in multiple districts.
Nevertheless, Fine Gael has a striking vulnerability. The revelation that the Minister for Social Protection, Heather Humphreys, will not seek reelection means the party will be contesting this election with less than half the TDs previously elected. If being the incumbent provides an electoral edge, as is commonly expected, then the party is faced with a notable disadvantage as they near the election’s commencement.
Lastly – with quick cut valid gestures, foaming soap and overflowing champagne – the competition’s energy is palpable. We are in secure but dirty hands.
The Taoiseach need only look across the Dáil floor to gain insight on how to turn adversity into advantage. In 2020, Sinn Féin succeeded in riding the wave of dissent in the electorate and secured a host of new TDs, thanks to a vigorous, presidential-like campaign spearheaded by Mary Lou McDonald.
Is it in Fine Gael’s power to emulate this success? Since assuming leadership six months back, Harris has unquestionably rejuvenated the party. The vigour and communication skills he brought have seemingly won back some of the voters who had distanced themselves in recent times. A fortunate turn of events, Sinn Féin’s downfall, has shifted the electoral equation in his favour, forecast the composition of the future government.
However, uncertainty persists: Will the capabilities that have elevated Harris to his current position withstand the harsher inspection of his party’s history and the impending obstacles that will accompany the actual election campaign? Across the nation, prospective Fine Gael TDs are undoubtedly praying fervently for a positive outcome.