Two years ago, many TDs in Fianna Fáil accurately foresaw the political landscape of the early months of 2024. They anticipated their party’s ongoing struggle in the polls, a leadership change, and the emergence of a fresh face from a younger generation to rejuvenate the party ahead of the local and European elections, leading eventually to the general election. Yet, ironically, these are the events that have unfolded for Fine Gael, not Fianna Fáil.
Over the years, Fianna Fáil has been dealing with seemingly ceaseless leadership issues since 2010, but has managed to maintain its leader. Conversely, Fine Gael, from appearing to have a stable structure, now finds itself under new leadership, tasked with resuscitating the party’s relevance.
Fianna Fáil stands poised to face the summer elections under the same leader who has been in place for 13 years and has emerged as influential a figure as Bertie Ahern once was. All speculations of Micheál Martin’s exit, sporadically voiced over the past decade, have proven unfruitful.
By the midway point of the previous year, a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs had reconciled with the fact that not only was Martin not planning on resigning, he would also lead the party into the next general election. It was an inconspicuous transformation, occurring as subtly as rust forms. Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators might occasionally strain to differentiate their party from others, but it boasts significantly more stability than Fine Gael.
Unlike their Coalition partner, who will be heading into the general election without a third of its sitting TDs, a vast majority of incumbent Fianna Fáil deputies plan to stand for re-election. Several months ago, a Fianna Fáil TD who had weathered the volatility of high office reflected, “We are in some trouble, but we are in a significantly stronger position than Fine Gael.”
It’s worth noting, however, that the party’s popularity in the polls has been relatively average. Nevertheless, there’s a prevailing belief among the ranks that there are numerous “quiet” Fianna Fáil supporters, suggesting that their true level of support is slightly higher. The veracity of this belief will be truly tested in the forthcoming local and European elections. The party’s focus this weekend at the ardfheis, in Dublin’s Royal Convention Centre, lies predominantly on those elections.
Ardfheiseanna have traditionally served as platforms for political parties to put forward their policies, key messages and candidates to the public, particularly in anticipation of elections. The current schedule enlists ministers covering the key policy areas of the party, including new housing projects, safety in communities, rural Ireland, financial stability and the disability sector. However, the programme does not mention climate change or immigration.
The only proposals discussed are typically around foreign relations and defence, along with ongoing party debates on neutrality. Recently, Fianna Fáil appears to have a slightly steadier footing than Fine Gael. However, the entrance of Simon Harris could potentially alter this balance, at least for the short-term leading up to the June elections. It is also notable that both parties trail substantially behind Sinn Féin and the Independents.
In the 2019 local elections, Fianna Fáil managed to secure 12 additional council seats, totalling to 279. It will be a challenge to maintain this performance, particularly with Sinn Féin, who lost half of its 160 seats in 2019, expected to dramatically increase its share. The attention of Fianna Fáil this weekend will likely concentrate on the European elections, where they see a better chance of victory. The decision to hold the event in Dublin is thought to support incumbent MEP Barry Andrews, who is locked in a tight race to keep his seat. Billy Kelleher is also anticipated to hold his seat securely. Moreover, the addition of Barry Cowen to the ticket for Midlands North West could offer the party it’s first victory in the region in ten years.
Achieving three MEP seats would be seen as a triumph for the party, even though underdogs like Lisa Chambers or Niall Blaney in Midlands North West, or Cynthia Ní Mhurchú in the South might pull off a surprise win. Although speculation suggests Martin may soon retire, insiders believe he will stay on and lead the party into the next election. He is not expected to restore the party to its previous glory in Irish politics, but it is important for the party to demonstrate considerable progress in delivering on their key pledges, particularly in the areas of new home construction and improved healthcare services.
The issue of who will succeed Martin as party leader will become a major complication when he eventually decides to step down, as no clear successor is apparent. This could lead to potential trouble within the party.