Although it’s still in the early stages of these local and European elections, indications are already starting to emerge that could significantly shape the final results. As the counting began on Saturday, there were no unexpected revelations. We’d noted the flood of negative votes in the recent referendum and the clear success Sinn Féin was set to have in the 2020 general election. The consensus from the count centres so far seem to fall in line with what’s been forecasted in the opinion polls.
A notable feature of the vote count is the prevalence of votes for independent candidates. The independent bracket is a broad one, ranging from candidates who are simply immigration-sceptic to those who align with far-right, ‘Ireland for the Irish’ sentiments. A cursory glance suggests it’s those expressing a concern for immigration who appear to be more likely to gain seats, particularly in areas where immigration has sparked unrest. We have, so far, not seen significant support for far-right ideologies.
While the Government party support seems to be suffering a minor slump, it’s nowhere near catastrophe. It’s expected that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will lose some local authority seats, based on preliminary counts, but this was anticipated following their strong showing in 2019.
Successful incumbents also contribute to the election’s landscape, as re-elected councillors seem to secure their seats. Provisional European vote counts suggest that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will claim seats in each of the constituencies. It appears Regina Doherty, for whom Fine Gael had concerns about electoral performance in Dublin, is faring well.
Contrary to widespread beliefs, the Green vote does not seem to be tumbling. Although their European seats are undoubtedly at risk, it is not widely assumed that Grace O’Sullivan will hold onto her seat in South Ireland. However, the numbers from local elections imply that the anticipated culling of Green councillors might not happen.
The re-emergence of Sinn Féin winning a multitude of seats has been anticipated, considering the party’s dismal performance in 2019. Early signs, albeit still immature, indicate the party’s recent dip in popularity polls is being mirrored in the voting results.
An intriguing trend developing in certain parts of Dublin is Sinn Féin potentially oversupplying candidates, putting themselves in danger of vote splitting, damaging their own prospects. This carries a sense of irony, considering the party left seats unclaimed in the general election due to insufficient candidate numbers. However, these decisions were made when the party was polling between 30-35%, whereas now it reflects more of a 20-25% party, if they’re lucky.