Mounting concerns of a full-blown conflict have been sparked by widespread demands for retribution against Israel, following the assassinations of Fuad Shukr, the military strategist for Hizbullah, and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas. To avoid a cataclysmic response from Israel, a US-backed regional heavyweight, movements backed by Iran are deliberating strategic measures to reinstate deterrence.
Battered in Gaza and encircled in the West Bank by Israeli forces, Hamas is out of its depth to seek revenge, especially after Israel’s targeted killing of its military mastermind, Mohammed Deif, on July 13th. The responsibility for retaliation over the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh thus falls on Hizbullah, a militant group with Iranian support based in Lebanon, along with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units, and the Houthis of Yemen.
Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, cautioned Israel during Shukr’s funeral to brace itself for outrage and retaliation. He pledged to persist with attacks on Israel and pressure them to cease their aggression towards Gaza, stating that the only acceptable resolution is to cease the warfare in Gaza.
Mindful of the fact that Lebanon’s crisis-torn state cannot endure another war with Israel similar to the 2006 conflict, Nasrallah understands the need to avoid inciting Israeli vengeance against Lebanese infrastructure and population hubs. As a strategic counter-move, Hizbullah could plan an operation against an Israeli military base.
Israel had previously launched a strike in a Hizbullah-held area in Beirut, where they assassinated Haniyeh’s deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, in January. In response, Hizbullah attacked the strategically important Mount Meron military air traffic control base in Northern Israel, avoiding a significant counterstrike.
The killing of Haniyeh in Tehran by Israel, during his visit to the inauguration ceremony of Iranian president Mahmoud Pezeshkian, may have scuppered Pezeshkian’s aspirations to build relations with Western countries. His objectives involved reviving talks pertaining to the 2015 deal which called for restricting Iran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting the sanctions that have severely damaged Iran’s economy. Moreover, Pezeshkian’s planned internal reforms could potentially be abandoned by staunch conservatives that are against his presidency. This may lead to a resurgence of public protests that were initiated in 2022, following the arrest of Mahsa Amini by the moral police, allegedly due to her non-compliance with the law of wearing a headscarf.
Just as in the case of Hizbullah, the Revolutionary Guards are bound to exercise caution. In an attempt to discourage Israel from attacking Iran, the guards executed a widely publicised large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to an air strike from Israel that claimed the lives of eight Revolutionary Guard members at the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Almost all, 99 per cent, of the weapons were destroyed by Israeli missile defence systems and their allies. If the guards were to execute another such attack over the coming days without warning, it would provoke a severe response from Israel.
Following information from Israel about their attack on Beirut, the US promptly acted by launching an attack on a base of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units near Babylon, leading to the death of drone experts belonging to pro-Iranian factions. The US officials justified the strike as an act of self-defence. Amidst the prospects of retaliation, the mobilisation units may be hesitant to resume attacking Iraqi bases housing US troops, yet may demand the government to order the immediate evacuation of the 2,500 US personnel stationed in the country.
Considering that the US planes seem to have deployed from Kuwait for the attack, pressure could be exerted on its leaders to forbid any attacks on neighbouring Arab countries from the Emirates’ territory.
In response to a drone assault on Tel Aviv by Yemeni Houthi, which resulted in one Israeli casualty, Israel retaliated by attacking the Houthi’s Hodeidah port and setting fuel storage tanks ablaze. These actions along with the assassinations, might compel the Houthis to escalate their attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Besides pushing for an end to the Gaza war, these strikes have bolstered support for the Houthis among the populace and has led to a decline in traffic through the Suez Canal, reducing shipping operations at Israel’s port of Eilat by a massive 85% as per reports from Reuters.
Caught amidst the conflicts involving Israel and its adversaries, it’s anticipated that local leaders would likely approach Washington to urge Israel to terminate the warfare in Gaza. This conflict is perceived to be the root of political assassinations, escalating disputes, and consequential overspill.