The latest risk evaluation by the Irish government suggests that a probable European war may lead to an extensive surge in refugees, posing a significant threat to Ireland. This is indicated in the first National Risk Assessment released in four years. The government is particularly concerned about the economic impacts posed by such a risk, labeling it ‘very likely’.
This novel assessment, scheduled for publication this Thursday, introduces ‘mass inward population displacement’ as a significant possible hazard to the nation for the first time. As per the report, drafted by the Office of Emergency Planning of the Department of Defence and other governmental sections experts, the most plausible worst-case scenario features massive inward population flow along with a surge in international protection applicants. This scenario is expected to stress the economy’s carrying capacity.
At present, state services are already strained by over 80,000 Ukrainian refugees residing in Ireland and an unprecedented number of international protection applicants. The assessment underlines the necessity for social unity and assimilation efforts, given the recent influx of asylum seekers and refugees, according to an accompanying document from the Department of the Taoiseach.
The assessment also includes a public opinion survey on the country’s primary threats. It points to a likely risk of ‘mass inward population displacement’ with a ‘high impact’.
For the first time, threats to vital underwater infrastructure, such as communications cables and electricity and gas connectors, are also included. While the likelihood of such an event is moderate, it would have a ‘very high impact’ on the State, should it take place. The report notes Ireland’s particular vulnerability to gas pipeline damages, considering the country’s lack of gas storage and heavy reliance on a single Scottish source. A co-ordinated attack on both gas pipelines associated with the UK emerges as the utmost worst-case scenario.
The appraisal pointed out the probable sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline in 2022 and the harm inflicted on the Balticconnector pipeline in the previous year. The Department of the Taoiseach highlighted that sabotage risks “have become more urgent.” For Ireland, being an island nation, increases the risk due to the existence of essential communication and energy-related undersea facilities.
Other main risks exemplified in the appraisal encompass cyber threats, contagions and terrorism.
In line with other nations, terror actions could have a detrimental impact on Ireland. The recent hostilities in Ukraine led by Russia and the crisis in Gaza have escalated these inherent risks.
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Commercial drone activities, especially those disrupting air travel at Dublin Airport, have a high likelihood of occurring.
Other perilous scenarios classified as “low-frequency, high-consequence,” incorporate occurrences such as tsunamis and “space weather” incidents.
The public has suggested additional threats that include dangers presented by extreme right-wing ideologies, meddling in politics by foreign potentates, and “nuclear mishaps due to vessels carrying nuclear commodities in proximity to the Irish coastline”.