Polling stations have commenced operation in twenty European Union nations, spanning from the chilling north of Sweden and Lithuania to the warm south of Portugal and Cyprus. These stations are set to aid citizens in electing their representatives for the subsequent five-year cycle of the European Parliament.
The current atmosphere is peppered with worry, stemming from expected political shifts towards the right, which might potentially hamper the world’s largest trade union from making crucial decisions. This concern is heightened by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the rising negativity towards immigrants.
In this exercise of democracy, the populace is voting for 720 members of the parliament – seats are allocated based on the population of each country. For instance, Malta and Luxembourg have six seats each whereas Germany gets 96 seats.
The voting, which takes place every five years, kicked off in the Netherlands on Thursday. As per the rules, the official outcomes can only be announced once all polling stations across the 27 nations have ceased operation. Interestingly, the last station to close will be the ones in Italy at 11 pm local time; until then, only unofficial estimates of the results will be available, likely flowing in late Sunday afternoon.
Thursday’s unofficial exit poll hints at Geert Wilders’s anti-immigrant, far-right party possibly securing substantial gains in the Netherlands. Despite the apparent success, a coalition of pro-European parties might scrape ahead.
Since 2019’s EU election, right-wing or populist parties have seized power in Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy and are now prominent in governing coalitions in other countries, including Sweden, Finland, and soon, the Netherlands. Moreover, these parties appear to have the edge in France, Belgium, Austria, and Italy according to polls.
These elections are transpiring amid testing times, given the erosion of voter faith across a union of 450 million inhabitants. Over the past half-decade, the EU has wrestled with a pandemic, economic downturn, and an energy crisis, all whilst dealing with the largest territorial dispute in Europe since WWII.
In addition to defining the start of a period of uncertainty for Europeans and their international allies, the elections will certainly result in a scramble to establish political factions and alliances within parliament. The EU governments will undoubtedly vie to secure top EU positions for their national representatives.
A significant role up for grabs is the presidency of the influential executive arm, the European Commission, the entity responsible for proposing new laws and ensuring compliance. Moreover, the Commission holds control over the EU’s financial resources, oversees trade, and functions as the competition monitor in Europe.
Prime positions within the European Union (EU) exist such as the European Council’s President, who presides over summits of the region’s leaders, and the head of EU foreign policy who acts as the bloc’s primary diplomat. The EU legislators exercise power over a range of laws which encompass financial regulations, climate action, and agricultural policy. Additionally, they hold the responsibility of endorsing the EU budget, which serves a dual purpose of financing political priorities of the bloc as well as infrastructural initiatives, farm aids, and support extended to Ukraine.
However, local concerns within member countries often overshadow the broader European interests in political campaigns, leading to voters using their votes to oppose their country’s measures rather than supporting European progression. Recent polling data indicates that while mainstream and pro-European parties will maintain their dominance in parliament, far-right factions, led by personalities like Mr. Wilders and France’s Marine Le Pen, may erode their seat numbers.
The most influential political faction, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), has shifted towards traditionally far-right themes like stricter immigration control, increased safety measures, and prioritising commercial interests over social welfare. The future outlook may depend heavily on choices made by the Brothers of Italy, the country’s ruling party synonymous with populist far-right ideologies and led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni. She may continue aligning with the hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists or join a possible new hard-right group following the elections, or she may choose to collaborate with the EPP.
Pro-European parties face a significant challenge with the centre-left Socialists and Democrats as well as the Greens refusing to associate themselves with the European Conservatives and Reformists. The situation threatens to worsen should the latter choose to align with Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy, bolstering the hard-right’s impact.
Uncertainty also surrounds which faction Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s nationalistic Fidesz party, known for its strong anti-immigration stance, will affiliate with having been expelled from the EPP in 2021 due to a clash of interests. The EPP supports granting Ursula von der Leyen a second term as commission president, but her continuance is not assured even if they come out victorious as the final decision rests with the national leaders, and the parliament must validate the chosen candidate.