The leaders representing the 27 nations that make up the European Union are set to convene on Thursday morning, during a period of divergent aspirations within the bloc. Major issues confronting Europe, such as asylum policy, the intensifying Middle Eastern conflict, and the languishing economic trajectory of the bloc, have bred discord among member states about preferred outcomes.
This predicament is particularly challenging for an organisation that, in domains like foreign policy and taxation, necessitates unanimous consensus for decisions. Of the few areas on which there is widespread agreement, the most prominent is the difficulty of reaching consent.
In the context of the Middle Eastern conflict, where Israel’s confrontations in Gaza have spilled over into Lebanon, two factions with firm standpoints have emerged among EU member states. Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, and Belgium are perceived as backing the Palestinian cause and insist on Israel being held accountable for the devastation in Gaza. Conversely, Hungary, Germany, Austria and Czechia generally stand as staunch supporters of Israel. The remaining member states occupy a more neutral position.
A primary source of contention among member states revolves around characterising Israel’s right to self-defence. A high-ranking EU official recently denoted the issue: “The war against Hizbullah stirs opposing views. Some deem it justifiable to target terrorists, while others argue its disproportionality.” The pro-Israel faction attributes the conflict in Lebanon solely to rockets launched by Hizbullah insurgents into Israel following the attack by Hamas on October 7th.
Ireland and Spain are advocating for more substantive action from the EU, beyond mere expressions of concern. They have called for a reassessment of the EU’s commerce pact with Israel as a means of curbing its military activities.
According to confidential legal insight obtained by Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top diplomat who will soon relinquish his role, the revisal of the trade agreement may not be an exclusive authority of the European Commission as initially perceived. Instead, the power to decide could be extended to the member states’ discretion, calling for total agreement. This implies that the highly probable dissent from a minimum of one capital could nullify the proposal.
Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary and a pro-Kremlin EU leader, is strategically waiting for the results of the impending US presidential elections in early November. Ukraine’s conflict, which takes precedence on the meeting agenda, has previously demonstrated how a single power among the 27 can indefinitely postpone EU resolutions. Orban, known to exploit veto powers, has previously obstructed a €6 billion support package intended to assist Ukraine in resisting Russia.
Orban is hopeful that a continued Trump administration would compel the EU to adopt his stance or prompt the US to withdraw its military backing for Ukraine. Such a move could force Kyiv into direct negotiations with Russia.
At the upcoming European Union summit, the most contentious topic of conversation will be migration and asylum policies. Notably, numerous capitals have deviated from a uniform stance and opted to act independently. Germany has recently implemented border controls to curb irregular migration from fellow EU nations. Meanwhile, Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, has declared intentions to temporarily forbid people from claiming asylum at its border with Belarus. This decision emerges from concerns over Russia and its allies pushing migrants into Poland and other Baltic nations, unsettling the European Union.
Earlier this year, a significant transformation to the EU’s asylum policy was instituted, aimed at concluding the protracted discussions surrounding the issue. The alterations will simplify the process of expedited decisions on asylum applications and establish shared responsibility for frontline nations including Italy, Spain and Greece. The current provisional draft of the European Council’s conclusions urges leaders to find innovative methods to combat and prevent irregular migration and quicken the process of deportations.
Far-right factions are mounting pressure on administrations throughout the union regarding immigration policies, with the recent asylum pact not anticipated to be operational until the latter part of 2026. This has led to an increasing trend of nations drifting towards more conservative ideologies. It is predicted that this group of nations will push for an earlier implementation of some aspects of the asylum regulations at the upcoming summit. They are also advocating for advance action against asylum seekers whose applications have not been granted.
The European Council’s initial working document implies that the leaders urge the EU to uncover “innovative methods to halt and challenge random immigration”, as well as to expedite the deportation process.
The draft document suggests establishing more agreements with nations outside the EU boundaries, such as those in the North African region, in order to mitigate the influx of immigrants into Europe. Nonetheless, the migration-related text in the draft bulletin is still surrounded by brackets, indicating that a consensus among the union members is yet to be reached.