Ursula von der Leyen, the current President of the European Commission, confirmed that the centre in European politics is maintaining its position in the face of extreme right and left threats, indicated by the early results of the European elections. Despite some inroads made by far-right parties in several European countries, the existing ruling majority consisting of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the centrist Renew, will endure.
An initial forecast based on preliminary voting outcomes from 17 countries, combined with exit polls and other data from another 10 countries, predicts that the EPP will secure 189 out of the 720 seats available in the European Parliament. The S&D is expected to hold steady with their present level of support, securing 135 seats, however Renew is set to lose around a fifth of its MEPs, reducing its count from 102 to 80 seats.
A significant fall is also predicted for the European Greens, with their seat share dropping from 71 to 52. Roughly 160 seats of the upcoming parliament are anticipated to go to hard right and far right parties, which are scattered amongst various groupings.
Ms. von der Leyen, addressing the situation on Sunday evening, stated her EPP group, inclusive of Fine Gael, had victorious election results. “Our leadership over the past five years has been recognised by voters, confirming us as a stable foundation. The centre, thus, continues to stand strong. However, it’s also evident that there’s an increase in support for extreme left and right factions,” she added.
Von der Leyen also announced her quick initiation of assembling a coalition of MEPs in order to back her envisaged second term as commission president, assuming her anticipated nomination by 27 national leaders. In relation to the Dublin European constituency, Barry Andrews from Fianna Fáil appears likely to secure the first seat, having slightly led against Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty late on Sunday night.
Following a considerable defeat by the National Rally party in France’s EU election, President Emmanuel Macron promptly called for new parliamentary elections on Sunday evening. The expectation is that Austria’s right-wing Freedom Party will top their poll and gain multiple seats, as exit polls suggest it leading over the Austrian People’s Party (centre-right) and the Social Democratic Party of Austria (centre-left).
In contrast, Spain saw the centre-right People’s Party come out on top, with exit polls indicating a potential victory over Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party. Meanwhile, in Greece, the centre-right party New Democracy continues to remain the biggest party, with an exit poll indicating around 30% support. Notably, the left-wing Syriza party stands as the second with approximately 16% vote share. However, the Greek Solution, a right-wing faction, should rank fifth, winning around 8% of the total votes according to exit polls.
Predictions for Polish politics suggest that Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centre-right Civic Coalition (EPP) would outpace the conservative Law and Justice party, the power of which the pro-EU coalition overthrew after general elections the previous year.
Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, the right-wing Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, is poised to secure additional seats. The voter’s backing for central parties seems relatively stable according to the exit polls. Croatia’s leading party is predicted to be the Democratic Union (aligned with EPP), with an exit poll indicating about 33% support. In Malta, parties from both the EPP and S&D groups are each forecasted to win half of the six available seats. The far-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) appears to be contending for the second rank in Romania, as per exit poll data.
Since the 2019 EU election, populist or far-right parties now govern in three countries – Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy – while also being part of ruling coalitions in others.
The elections coincide with a challenging period for voter confidence across a union of 450 million people. Over the last half-decade, the EU has been rattled by the COVID-19 pandemic, economic downturn, and an energy crisis ignited by the major continental conflict since World War II.
Members of the European Union Parliament wield influence over various legislative areas, including finance regulations, environmental policy, and agricultural guidelines. Additionally, they hold decision-making power over the EU’s budgetary allowances, which include, but are not limited to, funds for critical infrastructure projects, agricultural subsidies, and financial assistance to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, there is an observable trend where political canvassing primarily zeroes in on country-specific concerns, rather their constituents’ broader European interests. Consequently, voters often utilise their vote to voice their disapproval of their domestic government’s policies.
The European People’s Party (EPP) has advocated for Ursula von der Leyen to be re-elected for a second term as the Commission President. However, there’s no guarantee she will retain her title, even if the EPP succeeds in their campaign. The decision of nomination lies primarily in the hands of the national leaders, even though any nomination must receive approval by the EU Parliament.