As Ireland anticipates the imminent nomination of its next representative for the European Commission, insiders within the government express a keen sense of urgency. It’s an apprehensive time for candidates vying for what is seen as one of the most esteemed positions an Irish public servant could strive for.
The outcome of the recent European elections has led to a pivotal gathering of EU leaders in Belgium’s capital, Brussels. Although no final decisions on key appointments have been made yet, any decisions would require the European Parliament’s approval, which cannot be assumed. Widely circulating speculations suggest that Ursula von der Leyen is poised for re-election as the European Commission’s President. At the same time, it is speculated that former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will take up the helm as the President of the European Council. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is expected to be appointed as the next EU foreign policy chief.
Additionally, each member of the state government is deliberating their nomination for the upcoming Commission. Every state is entitled to one commissioner, but the jostle is for the fewer, more influential and significant roles. Consequently, there’s an eager rush to secure an early nomination, thereby securing a favourable position to lobby for top-level positions.
A senior Irish source in Brussels cautioned the need to act swiftly, with the objective of making this meeting, or definitely the following week. Further negotiations concerning appointments are expected to continue in the upcoming two-day summit to be held next week.
Within governmental circles, names of potential nominees are being tossed around. The Finance Minister, Michael McGrath, seems to be the popular choice. Other potential candidates include Charlie McConalogue, the current Agriculture Minister, and although there has been some speculation about the former Attorney General Paul Gallagher, senior sources downplayed this possibility. Health Minister Stephen Donnelly was also mentioned, but the majority of whispers seem to lean towards McGrath.
It’s undisputed that the nomination will come from Fianna Fáil, a consensus reached during the Programme for Government discussions in 2020 concerning job agreements between Micheál Martin, Leo Varadkar, and Eamon Ryan. Some people held the somewhat plausible belief that Martin might seize this opportunity for himself, but he vehemently denies this, especially considering his calculation that his chances of guiding Fianna Fáil back to power and reclaiming the role of Taoiseach in the upcoming election are favourable. The outcomes from the previous week have undoubtedly substantiated his assessment.
McGrath, upon inquiry, only stated he would take “serious consideration” should the offer be presented. Most anticipate him accepting the role within the government, with his brother Seamus an immediate successor in their Cork constituency following his success in the local elections.
However, this would mean Martin needs to appoint a new finance minister not long before the summer economic updates, and in time for the election budget set for early October. Under such circumstances, options are a substitute from the existing Cabinet, or an outsider. Some believe appointing from the outside would result in less upheaval than a Cabinet reshuffle, with Dara Calleary or Jack Chambers as potential promoted candidates. Chambers, who made his mark during the recent local elections, is viewed as a rising star. Taking on the role would be a significant promotion for either man, however.