The narrow approval by Moldovan voters to push for EU membership, despite Moscow’s considerable influence in the region, signifies a substantial political setback for Russia’s regional aspirations. Russia was unsuccessful in its efforts to get Moldova to withdraw its EU bid, just as it was with its neighbouring country, Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin had not only warned Moldova against making such a move, but also made significant efforts to persuade the country’s electorate to reject the bid. This mirrors Russia’s political maneuvering in the ongoing elections in turbulent Georgia.
The Moldovan vote compellingly hung in the balance, with a 50.4 per cent favouring the proposal to aspire for EU membership in the constitution, against a 49.6 per cent not in favour. Alongside this, a sturdy wave of support propelled the pro-EU President Maria Sandu (42 per cent) in her re-election bid. Sandu is predicted to go head to head with her principal competitor, Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by the pro-Russian Socialist party in a successive vote on November 3rd.
Moldova, Europe’s least wealthy state, submitted an application for EU membership following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The EU commenced accession negotiations earlier this year upon many presuming this as a potential precursor to Russia’s annexation of Moldova. A €1.8 billion multi-year aid package was promised to Moldova, a nation of 2.5 million people nestled between Ukraine and Romania and previously part of the Soviet Union. However, conforming to the union’s financial and political prerequisites for entry is expected to take several years.
It is widely believed that Russia’s strategies to interfere with the referendum encompassed financing pro-Kremlin dissenters, spreading false information, tampering with local elections and administering an extensive vote-buying scheme. This scheme, devised by pro-Russian businessman and fugitive Ilan Shor, involved offering extra pension payments to retirees who agreed to vote against EU membership. Shor has made public offers on social media to remunerate Moldovans who can convince others to vote against the proposition, while dismissing any accusations of wrongdoing.
EU membership has encountered the most resistance in impoverished rural sectors and areas heavily populated by ethnic minorities, including Russians. Late incoming votes from Moldova’s sizable diaspora in EU member-states seem to have tipped the balance in favour of a YES vote.