The marked rise in popularity of populism in Eastern Germany has been predicted for some time, yet the magnitude of support it received on Sunday was such, it left Berlin noticeably rattled. As elections came to a close in regions such as Saxony and Thuringia, it gave a clear indication of the political landscape leading up to the upcoming national election set for September 2025.
Supporters of chancellor Olaf Scholz from the Social Democratic Party (SPD) appeared distressed as they moved from one TV studio to another, maintaining that the tumultuous three-party alliance will fulfil its complete term of four years. Yet, not all party members share this belief, nor do the electorate.
A poor performance in the Brandenburg election on September 22nd, the third state election of the year, might determine the fate of the ‘traffic light coalition’ and could increase internal pressure within SPD to replace Scholz.
After a three-year partnership with the Green party and the liberal Free Democrats, Germany has entered a state of economic decline, fiscal plans are under severe strain and support for Ukraine is noticeably waning, particularly in the eastern states. Voters in Berlin expressed their disapproval of the three ruling parties in the Sunday elections, blaming their lax immigration policies for a series of fatal attacks by asylum seekers.
The results, however, signify more than just the common political dynamics; it represents a historical shift in Eastern Germany, away from its post-reunification era. Approximately 50% of voters in Saxony and Thuringia turned their back on the entrenched western parties that entered the east in 1990.
Now, nearly one in three voters in these regions support Alternative for Germany (AfD), an extreme far-right populist party known for its ‘great replacement’ conspiracy theories.
The AfD, which is just 11 years old, first gained momentum in the east. It was also here that the party expanded its reach beyond its initial protest-driven focus. Analysis of the elections revealed that voters in Saxony and Thuringia believe that the AfD is the best-suited party to tackle the issues that matter the most to them: immigration reform, enhanced security, and the protection of Eastern German interests in Berlin.
In the wake of a notable performance last Sunday, the AfD’s probable absence from power in key state capitals will enable the party to weave a nationwide narrative of victimhood, rallying support on the grounds of opposing the “undemocratic” established political entities.
In Thuringia, where the AfD achieved a notable increase of nearly 10 percentage points and topped the polls, the party can still have significant input in parliamentary affairs despite being in opposition. Utilizing its third majority, the AfD holds power to obstruct crucial decisions that require a two-thirds majority — such as judiciary appointments or selection for the state intelligence service, an organisation that has branded the AfD as “extreme right”.
Those who may be disillusioned with the AfD in the run-up to next September’s federal poll have a fresh alternative to the far-right. They may choose to align with the eastern voters from this Sunday who opted to rally behind the right-left BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, a native of Thuringia.
Described by its competitors as a mysterious box of peaceful populism, the BSW earned impressive double-digit backing on its first election foray and might even end up dictating who accedes to power in Dresden and Erfurt.
This is primarily due to the likelihood of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leading both new governments. To secure a dominant position and keep up its self-inflicted embargo on colluding with the AfD, the CDU may have to abandon a long-standing prohibition on cooperating with the Left Party or the offshoot BSW and its enigmatic leader, Sahra Wagenknecht.
After over thirty years of political experience, Wagenknecht’s BSW — characterized by a limited membership, a small staff team, an unrefined party programme and unspecified funding — achieved an unexpected political feat on Sunday.
Having persuaded an array of voters from the AfD, the Left and other mainstream parties, it has now emerged as the unpredictable element in German federal politics, with polls indicating 9 per cent backing. The BSW has set out its agenda in Saxony and Thuringia, demanding increased investment in education, reduced spending on migrants, and a halt to weapon shipments to Ukraine. If Wagenknecht gets her way, these regional requirements will become national priorities this time next year.