For those captivated by politics, the activity resumes after a charged weekend. Well, don’t misjudge the situation thinking it’s over yet, despite the drama of the past couple of days at the election count centres. The main event is just picking up in certain areas, considering none of the 14 European parliamentary seats designated for Ireland have been taken so far. Here is a briefing based on the situation as it stood on Monday morning at 7am.
Out of 949 local election seats, 805 have been claimed. Yet, the count has only been finalised in 13 out of 31 local authorities. The battle for the title of the largest local government party is largely between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Each is holding just under 23 per cent of the votes, with 212 and 199 spot seats each.
While they’re likely to lose several seats compared to the 2019 elections, both parties seem satisfied since their results have outshined the predictions made in the polls conducted months ago.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin, who were hopeful about improving their abysmal performance from five years ago, are struggling with less than 12 per cent of the votes and 89 seats. A analysis by Jennifer Bray outlines the disappointing outcome of the party’s ambitious election strategy.
The pressure continues to mount on Taoiseach Simon Harris to plan general elections this year, given the unexpected performance of the main coalition parties. This is despite Harris disregarding the suggestion of early nation-wide elections yesterday.
The other coalition party, The Greens, who currently hold 3.6 per cent with 21 seats, may possibly lose half of these positions. However, they might be able to keep their losses minimal if they gain ground in Dublin, as reported by Jack Horgan-Jones.
Sarah Burns has made an analysis indicating that the Social Democrats and Aontú are set to increase their share, while Labour is anticipated to maintain the approximate 57 seats it secured in 2019. As of this day, Labour has secured 5.3 per cent of the vote and 48 seats, with the Social Democrats trailing at 3.5 per cent and 31 seats, and People Before Profit-Solidarity coming in last with 1.5 per cent and 10 seats.
Across the local elections, the most staggering victors, although technically not a unified group, have proven to be the Independents, securing over 28 per cent of the primary preference vote. To date, 195 of them have been elected, remaining just three seats short of the 2019 tally, with numerous seats yet to be confirmed.
What about candidates opposing the immigration policy? They’ve managed to acquire a few seats, with possible further success around the nation, but they haven’t yet become a significant political entity in Ireland, based on these elections.
As for the European elections, the bulk of the counting is set to start only from today. A first count result from Dublin revealed Barry Andrews from Fianna Fáil leading the vote, closely followed by Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty. Both fell shy of the quota but are in favourable positions to secure seats.
An intense contest is anticipated between Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan, The Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin of Labour, Independent Ireland’s Niall Boylan, Clare Daly of Independents4Change and People Before Profit’s Bríd Smith for the remaining two seats.
It might be a while before first count results for Ireland South and Midlands-North-West are available, and the counting process might extend for several days, calling for plenty of coffee and Red Bulls.
Simon Harris, the Taoiseach, was seen doing a victory lap at count centres, while Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald was notably dejected, as observed by Miriam Lord at the RDS yesterday.
Regarding the European political landscape, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, asserts that the early electoral results across European Union countries demonstrate the resilience of the centrist political groups, despite growing pressures from radical parties. Even with the noticeable rise of far-right parties in numerous European nations, she assures that the central-right European People’s Party (including Fine Gael), central-left Socialists and Democrats, and Renew (Fianna Fáil’s affiliation) will continue their prevailing majority leadership.
In Germany, the far-right has seen notable success in recent European elections whilst the coalition parties’ influence has waned, as reported by Derek Scally. In France, the surprising defeat of President Emmanuel Macron’s moderate alliance by Marine Le Pen’s far-right movement has prompted an unexpected parliamentary election.
Marie O’Halloran reveals that a thorough re-count will take place in the Blackrock local electoral area in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, as Independent Cormac Lucey has contested his defeat to Fine Gael’s Dan Carson by a narrow margin of two votes.
Votes in the notably extensive European election ballots will be counted in areas such as Dublin, Cork and Castlebar. Dublin constituency and possible Ireland South, are expected to see the majority of early results. However, it isn’t predicted that initial counts will be disclosed in Midlands-North-West, comprising 27 candidates, until the afternoon at the earliest.
Equally important to note is the proceeding election count in Limerick. The city and county are poised to select the first mayor of Ireland by direct vote. With a large candidate pool of 15, the anticipations for immediate results are low. Preliminary cross-party voting indicates John Moran, an Independent candidate and former Department of Finance secretary general, holds the lead with 24% of the votes. This places him eight percentage points ahead of fellow Independent, businesswoman Helen O’Donnell, polling 16%. Other contestants include Fianna Fáil’s Dee Ryan at 14%, Fine Gael’s Daniel Butler at 13% and Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan at 10%. Despite these figures, the official vote count is yet to commence.
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