This year, a plaque unveiled at the inauguration of the Patrickswell Community Centre in Limerick underscored the significance of political ownership, even among alliance partners. Initially, it commemorated the attendance of Heather Humphreys, a minister of the Fine Gael party, along with her party peer and Limerick County’s TD, Patrick O’Donovan. However, subsequent alterations were made to incorporate Niall Collins, a junior minister in the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil-Green Government and a political competitor of O’Donovan’s in the same constituency.
Collins pointed out that the Limerick City and County Council had committed an oversight, which was later rectified. With the coalition’s concluding budget due on the first day of October, and a general election in the offing, gaining recognition for political achievements is becoming increasingly crucial.
Internal divisions within the Coalition, which party leaders had previously strived to minimise, are becoming increasingly evident and potentially beneficial politically. The aim is for the three political units to establish their distinct identities in the voters’ perception but this also comes with risks.
Thus far, the Government has generally acted together in a pragmatic and low-intensity manner despite sporadic disagreements. This was unforeseen at the commencement of 2020 – amidst the panorama of a global health crisis, the two Civil War parties along with the Greens were involuntarily banded together. Despite ministerial resignations and the Golfgate scandal, relations at the top levels of Government started to solidify. Power soon revolved around a regular Monday evening rendezvous between then-Taoiseach Micheál Martin, the head of Fine Gael, Leo Varadkar, and Green Party chief Eamon Ryan, also attended by their primary aides, where they would tackle contentious issues.
The approach of consensus building and cautious incrementalism by Martin epitomised a solution well-suited for the trying times of eased Covid lockdowns, as it helped the tripartite government establish a flow. Yet, as the current year unfolds, change has come swiftly, with Ryan and Varadkar stepping out of the picture, and the once prevailing political urgency favouring unity has lessened as the government approaches its end, with a general election looming on the horizon.
Notably, the most significant shift has been the arrival of Harris in the role of Taoiseach in April. His political persona has breathed fresh energy into a party that has governed for 13 years, triggering a surge in its popularity and satisfaction rates among voters with Harris at the helm. The scale of the “Harris effect” has been likened to the one observed following Varadkar’s Brexit deal in 2019, prompting calls for Harris to call an early election.
The positive poll results cannot simply be credited to the excitement surrounding Harris’s election, given that the previous poll in May showed his popularity growing just weeks into his role. It appears that the more voters become familiar with Harris, the more they appreciate him – at the least for the time being.
As expected, there is an air of elation within the Harris’s faction, which savoured a summer marked by his enthusiastic visit to agricultural shows and the eagerness of fellow party members to meet him. Harris’s reception at the National Ploughing Championships in Co Laois last week was particularly memorable.
A source within Fine Gael stated, “We’ve managed to make Simon Harris, who has governed for 13 years, appear as the candidate for change – a trick worthy of the devil himself.” Given the current polling data, this statement is difficult to question. The electorate clearly support him. However, for the Green Party leader, Roderic O’Gorman, and Martin, the polling data is not so telling.
As the campaign momentum builds, it has become inevitable for distinctions to emerge among the Coalition parties. A part of this process involves the parties painting one another as overly political.
During an interview with The Sunday Times last weekend, O’Gorman expressed his concerns about his partners choosing politics over sound policy formulation. Meanwhile, Martin at the Fianna Fáil think-in during the week spoke of the responsibility of governance rather than being perpetually engaged in political campaigns, a comment perceived as directed at Harris, creating a ripple in Taoiseach’s office.
Fianna Fáil Cabinet members experienced displeasure after Taoiseach’s address to his parliamentary party, indicating the upcoming budget’s clarity regarding the €13 billion back-tax that the EU has instructed tech behemoth Apple to pay to the State. The statement was seen as a public reveal of a joint decision made just the previous Monday by the tripartite Government leaders, Jack Chambers (Minister for Finance), and Paschal Donohoe (Minister for Public Expenditure).
The attention and favour Harris has gained and more significantly, the momentum he has created are key considerations for election strategists. As the gradual and irregular separation of Coalition parties continues to evolve, Fianna Fáil TDs are permitted more freedom to indulge in their concerns about the Green Party and targeted Eamon Ryan this week due to a €40 million deficit in minor roads expenditure. James Lawless, the Fianna Fáil’s Minister of State, leads the attempt to aim for a Budget day payout to bridge the gap.
Several Fianna Fáil backbenchers have privately expressed their desire for Martin to dismiss any future coalition prospects with the Greens. Speaking for themselves, Green TDs protest that they are unfairly targeted, being the symbol of opposition to rural Ireland and the very root of all unpopular problems.
Party strategists are confident that O’Gorman can defend the Green’s position, with one remarking that “Rod can hold his own.” The newly appointed deputy leader of the party, Senator Róisín Garvey has openly claimed that other parties tend to co-opt the achievements of her party. The appearance of Green-focused budget stories has risen this year, more frequently than before.
The Green party experienced considerable shock after Fianna Fáil’s unexpected decision to contemplate deferring the land holding levy, as evidenced in a recent Cabinet housing committee meeting. The communicative disconnect between Fianna Fáil’s Chambers and the Greens’ O’Gorman was viewed as the first sign of discord regarding this tax initiative.
The two political parties have evidently diverging views regarding the issue of housing. While the Greens seek to implement increased safeguards for lessees, Fianna Fáil pursues a strategy of promoting home ownership. O’Gorman, spearheading the Greens, didn’t endorse the proposal for the expansion of the controversial ‘Help to Buy’ scheme. To add to the growing divergence, Fianna Fáil considers the scheme a fundamental objective in the budget. Interestingly, there seems to be internal support within the Green party for Sinn Féin’s housing affordability plan which emphasizes state ownership of privately controlled land.
The governing party, Fianna Fáil’s leader, Martin, has offhandedly dismissed the results of last week’s polling, vowing to exceed expectations in future polls. Some speculate that this dismissiveness is a result of resentment towards Fine Gael’s Harris, leading Martin to critique Harris’ promises of a state-subsidized childcare plan. Martin’s party sources insist he remains at ease, vowing to serve as a stabilising force within the government, even as Harris’ political vigour is high.
Following physics’ laws, a Fianna Fáil minister noted, neither physical nor political energy stays indefinitely. Hence, he suggests Harris’ momentum might just be ephemeral. Meanwhile, the party has been meticulously building its political manifesto, counting on the coordinated efforts of State Minister James Browne to present a compelling campaign to voters. This strategic withholding of policies is in stark contrast to Fine Gael’s approach of draining their policy reservoir during the budgeting period.
Rising tensions between the three political parties do suggest a potential risk of a more significant confrontation in the future. As a Green TD put it, with everyone getting more assertive, the fear is that someone might cross a line and cause a genuine problem.
An insider from the Cabinet provides a succinct overview of the current state of affairs, stating that everyone is cognisant of our position within the electoral period, and suggests that a disorderly downfall of the Government serves no one’s interest. However, the source also asserts that each individual is, simultaneously, aiming to establish their own sphere of political influence.