Greetings.
Today is Budget Day, a highlight of the political calendar. Expect to see enthusiasts, special interest groups, party loyalists, and all sorts of followers converging upon Leinster House. The Dáil pub will be bustling from the early evening, despite the fact that the House authorities have once again enhanced security and closed off Kildare Street from this morning. So, if you’re planning on attending, make sure to arrive early.
Jack Chambers, the newly appointed Minister for Finance, will present his initial budget at 1 pm in the legislative hall, with Paschal Donohoe, who will be presenting his ninth budget, following him. This could be in his capacity as the Minister for Finance, or his current role, Minister for Public Expenditure. Overseeing nine budgets undoubtedly marks Donohoe as one of the key shapers of Ireland in 2024.
Much of the details to be declared by the two ministers have already leaked to the public. This premature leaking is disapproved by conservative politicians and government officials who nostalgically recall the days when Phil Hogan was pressured to step aside for prematurely releasing a press notice about the budget.
On the contrary, we appreciate this event for the recognition it brings to the fantastic efforts of political reporters.
Naturally, our main story today is devoted to the budget.
The likelihood of an imminent general election has set the stage for this budget. Could Donohoe break his record and present a 10th budget next year, matching finance experts’ comparison with Ernest Blythe? Might Chambers examine his second budget? The looming general election has cast a shadow over everything, including the budget. This is driven by two prominent factors: the enormous surplus that the Government has amassed, and the impending election. So, what can we expect going forward?
Evidently, Donohoe and Chambers have exerted a semblance of control over the budgetary increments, despite exceeding their fiscal rule of confining expenditure growth to 5 per cent for the third consecutive year. They are set to report a significant surplus.
In a significant fiscal move, the government has increased one-off expenditure measures to €2 billion. These measures, set to offer considerable cash incentives to people ahead of the festive season, have seen significant growth in recent days. Among the proposed payouts are two instances of double child benefit payments, potentially providing close to €1,700 to households with three children. Additional payouts include €250 energy credits and a variety of other payments aimed at alleviating the rising cost of living pressures faced by citizens.
While it may be perceived as an attempt at courting voters ahead of elections, the government seemingly has the capacity to do so. Despite significant spending on one-time costs and public services, it continues to invest in contingency funds and bolster capital expenditure, all whilst maintaining a significant budget surplus. Even though withholding the spare capital could be deemed economically advisable, it would likely lead to political instability.
In global news, Israeli forces have entered Lebanon marking a heightened escalation in their campaign against Hizbullah. Sally Hayden reported that further incursions by Israeli units into Lebanon seemed likely on Monday evening following a day of airstrikes and targeted eliminations. Israel has initiated minor localized ground operations in Southern Lebanon early this morning. The potential for a more extensive conflict in the Middle East could have profound implications for Ireland. Given these circumstances, the government’s budget surpluses could become increasingly crucial.
Today’s topics of interest include a discussion on Leo Varadkar’s proposal that all political parties should agree on a common goal of achieving a united Ireland. Out of 230 complaints filed against Irish judges under a new complaint framework, only one was deemed substantial enough for further consideration. A review of the television documentary detailing Ben Dunne’s remarkable story aired last night, and there’s a puzzling delay in the Creeslough investigation. Additionally, a tribute to Kris Kristofferson is worth a read. OPW’s exceptional project cost management is also highlighted.
The cabinet is set to convene today to sign off on the budget and get a briefing about its details.
The parliamentary proceedings of the Dáil initiate at 1pm, starting with dialogues from the Ministers. The finance representatives of the Opposition will then offer their responses. The discussions will prolong till 8pm.
Following an intermission, Jack Chambers is slated to introduce financial motions to implement certain adjustments mentioned in the budget. The voting is planned to take place at midnight.
Over in the Seanad, the budget statements are allocated a slot at 4.15pm, culminating at a respectable 7.45pm.
The budget day will only include a single committee meeting focused on housing, scheduled for a private session this morning.
To add to the day’s thrill, the debate for the US vice-presidential position will also be broadcasted tonight.