This week, a pair of contenders admitted defeat prematurely, only to reassess when they realised possible vote transfers could swing in their favour.
In the 2019 election, Fine Gael’s Deirdre Clune found herself trailing over 15,000 votes behind her closest competitor after fifteen counts. Just as she was on the brink of conceding, a surprising turn of events brought her back in the game. Significant vote transfers from her colleague Andrew Doyle, coupled with an unexpected 9,000 transfers from Fianna Fáil’s Malcolm Byrne, helped her claim an additional 28,000 votes, vaulting her ahead of her competition.
It sends an important message to the remaining competitors vying for the final seats in Midlands North West and in Ireland South – vote transfers can be incredibly unpredictable. As Clare Daly discovered, those anticipated to heavily transfer can disappoint, while a low expectation candidate can deliver a windfall.
In MNW and Ireland South, we’ve witnessed incumbents prematurely announcing their withdrawal, only to revise their statements within a few hours. Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew was one such candidate in MNW on Tuesday.
In a similar vein, in Ireland South, Grace O’Sullivan confessed to our southern correspondent Barry Roche that she was losing her seat. Drawing from her 2019 experience, she noted that she had been amiable towards transfers, but this time it was different. She felt the momentum from her 2019 climate campaign and the subsequent “Green wave” had dissipated.
However, O’Sullivan’s admission was premature. Surprisingly, on the 16th count last night, Susan Doyle from the Social Democrats transferred a monumental 8,000 votes to O’Sullivan, putting her back in the game.
Nonetheless, her situation remains precarious as she must outdo Mick Wallace or Cynthia Ní Mhurchú. This could prove tough given that the anti-immigrant candidate Derek Blighe and Fine Gael’s John Mullins could be ousted next.
In MNW, the scenario is equally intricate. Ultimately, it seems Michelle Gildernew and Ciaran Mullooly will contend for the final seat unless Niall Blaney transfers a sizable vote share to Lisa Chambers over Barry Cowen.
In our ongoing coverage today, we will provide the latest count results as they become available. This will include counts from local election races, so you can delve into the data to your heart’s content. The most noteworthy story today centres on the potential impact of these counts, particularly the rising friction among the Greens, Fianna Fáil, and Fine Gael.
In recent developments, Catherine Martin, Arts and Media Minister, voiced her concern to her Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael counterparts that the climate crisis should not be trivialised or used as a political tool during election seasons. Responding to criticisms her party, the Greens, has received, Deputy Leader Martin stressed that she has no control over the actions of the other Coalition parties.
In other news, the fierce contest between James Stokes from Sinn Féin and Melissa Byrne from Aontú concluded yesterday after four recounts saw Stokes move ahead by two votes. However, this victory was short-lived as Stokes was unable to gather enough transferred votes from Byrne to defeat Tom McDonnell, the 949th councillor to secure a seat. Marie O’Halloran has written an in-depth feature on McDonnell, who campaigned on a firmly anti-immigrant platform in Newbridge Local Electoral Area and co-founded a group named Éire Saor.
Finally, the highly debated Planning and Development Bill saw the Dáil convene until the early hours today. Darragh O’Brien, the Housing Minister, insists this law is vital for achieving the government’s housing goals, intending to simplify planning procedures and restructure An Bord Pleanála while making it tougher for legal objections against new developments. The bill has faced intense scrutiny and has been gradually working its way through the Committee for months. The government revealed plans this week to curtail debate on the bill after a second day of discussion in the Dáil, a move that sparked fierce resistance from the Opposition, some of whom argue that this rush to pass the law is a sign of the government preparing for a potential general election.
As midnight approached last night, the inevitable happened. The guillotine was deployed, prompting criticism from Michael Healy-Rae. He vocally expressed his disappointment to Ceann Comhairle, highlighting the 585 amendments that Dáil criticism would now neglect. He expressed his shame that the Government granted permission for this Bill in Parliament.
Even more turmoil brewing as RTÉ chairman, Terence O’Rourke, made it known that the broadcasting company’s board had contemplated an exit package for an undisclosed individual, worth around €400,000. The identity of this person remained concealed, but it was confirmed that this matter was communicated to the minister.
This situation might pull RTÉ back into politically hotter waters.
Miriam Lord presented an excellent piece regarding Taoiseach Simon Harris’s second-day provocation of the Opposition, post-election. Lord illustrates how in a dialogue with Michael Collins, Independent Ireland, Harris mocked the Opposition by using a shaky voice and hand gestures caricaturing their criticisms of the government.
This, unsurprisingly, led to an eruption of anger from the rural Deputies in the Opposition.
Minister of State, Malcolm Noonan, censured Mattie McGrath for his anti-science beliefs after McGrath dismissed the EPA’s “fake news” over their reports highlighting ongoing water quality issues in our lakes and rivers. This discussion was excellently reported by Marie O’Halloran.
Election 2024’s highs and lows are comprehensively reviewed by Cormac McQuinn. A superb summary indeed.
Mary Robinson, former president, notably addressed the Seanad, stirring the Upper House with her warning that we only have six years to reverse climate change damage.
Ryanair’s leader, Michael O’Leary, was reported by Martin Wall to have issues with bicycle lanes too, following Regina Doherty’s complaints. His claim that few people utilise them in Dublin was, however, deemed an exaggeration.
Election Summary: Reviewing the election’s closing stage.
Dáil Éireann Activity Schedule:
09:00: Question Time for Minister for Health.
10:30: Question Time for Minister for Agriculture.
12:00: Leaders answering queries.
A schedule of notable events transpired as follows: beginning at 13:49, there was the Second Stage of the Motor Insurance Insolvency Compensation Bill 2024. This was subsequently followed by a Private Members’ Bill at 18:18, which aimed to protect accident victims from unsolicited recording of images, named the Protection of Accident Victims from Non-Consensual Recording of Images Bill 2022. At 19:33, proceedings within the Dáil were temporarily halted.
Meanwhile, in Seanad Éireann, a session was held at 11:45 concerning the Health (Assisted Human Reproduction) Bill 2022, also entering its Second Stage.
In other areas, several committee meetings were held. The Joint Committee on Drugs Use collaborated with Citizens’ Assembly representatives, beginning at 09:30. Simultaneously, deliberations took place within the Committee on Public Accounts concerning the 2022 financial figures relating to the Office of Public Works.
From 10:00, the Joint Committee discussed major matters impacting the Traveller Community, with a focus on accommodation issues. Representatives from the Irish Human Rights Equality Commission were present for this.
Lastly, at 13:30, there was an update from Darragh O’Brien, the Minister for Housing, regarding the progress of the Housing for All scheme within the Housing Committee.