Although the Government is firm on not holding the general election before Christmas, political parties are intensifying their efforts in choosing candidates in anticipation of it. As per the latest data prepared by Dr Adrian Kavanagh, a lecturer at Maynooth University, there are already 148 candidates ready to contend for the forthcoming Dáil election.
In the past few weeks, the process of candidate election has seen an upswing and is anticipated to hasten, with most parties marking the end of September as the deadline. The pattern of candidate choice so far has varied significantly compared to the last general election in February 2020, as noted by Dr Kavanagh.
“In the previous elections, a majority of constituencies finalised their nominations more than a year before the polling date. In January 2019, I was aware of 307 candidates who had been decided out of a total of 516, which was 13 months before the general election,” he commented.
This time, the different rhythm can likely be attributed to several factors, such as evaluating the performance of candidates in local and European elections in June, the higher gender quota, and accommodating the changes in voting boundaries that were revealed at the end of last summer.
The Electoral Commission has recommended that the next Dáil should have 174 TDs representing 43 constituencies, a rise from the present 160 officials serving 39 constituencies.
The gender quota for political parties participating in elections will increase from 30 to 40 per cent. If they fail to meet the 40 per cent quota for both men and women, they risk losing half of the state funding.
This week, Monica Oikeh, a general practitioner who relocated to Ireland 20 years ago from Nigeria, was chosen by the Green Party to represent Cork South Central. Norma Foley, the Minister for Education, was named as the candidate for Kerry by Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael is slated to organise selection conventions for Donegal on August 26th and Offaly on August 29th.
Fifteen out of the 35 Fine Gael TDs who won seats in the 2020 elections, including past prime ministers Simon Coveney, Leo Varadkar, and ex-ministers Josepha Madigan, Michael Creed, Charlie Flanagan, Ciarán Cannon, and Michael Ring, have confirmed that they will not be contesting the next Dáil elections. Such a situation leaves the party with a substantial task of finding suitable candidates to fill the void.
The timing of the elections will be a pressing issue for current Taoiseach Simon Harris. A major part of his decision would revolve around whether the new faces, mainly councillors, enjoy enough recognition outside their local vicinities.
So far, Fine Gael has wrapped up 17 selection conventions, with another 26 due to take place. These include consitutencies of high profile names such as Dublin West (Varadkar), Mayo (Ring), and Galway East (Cannon). However, no prospective candidate has surfaced in Mayo. Michael Ring’s daughter, Suzanne, declared she wouldn’t stand, nor did Mayo-based MEP Maria Walsh.
A representative of the party stated that the Fine Gael executive council has requested for all the Dáil selection conventions to conclude by 22nd September, and they are on track to meet this demand. The early selection is geared towards providing ample time for the new candidates to strategise, boost their recognition and connect with their constituents ahead of the 2025 general elections scheduled for 22nd March.
The Lord Mayor of Dublin and Fine Gael Councillor, James Geoghegan, was the first general election candidate appointed by the party earlier this year. He will be vying for a seat in Dublin Bay South, albeit his unsuccessful run in the 2021 byelection. Some have speculated about the possible addition of a second candidate, former TD and pharmacist Kate O’Connell.
Although she did not put her name forward for the byelection brought about by the departure of erstwhile housing minister Eoghan Murphy nor was she up for grabs at the start of the year, she is regarded as having a cordial relationship with the Taoiseach.
During the Fine Gael Ardfheis in April, O’Connell declared that the decision to run in future elections would be at the discretion of the new Taoiseach; her own decision on running another time has yet to be finalised. Geoghegan has beforehand cautioned that attempts to run two candidates in the same constituency, encompassing areas such as Ballsbridge, Donnybrook, Portobello etc., could risk dividing the party vote and potentially delivering a loss.
Currently, Fine Gael has a lacuna in representatives (TDs) for Dublin Bay South, and their past strategy when facing similar circumstance has been to champion a single candidate. The decision on this matter, Geoghegan outlined, rests with the party leader and Fine Gael’s national executive, emphasising his dedication to reclaiming the seat at the ensuing general election, whatever the ultimate decision may be.
Meanwhile, in another political sphere, Grainne Seoige, a TV presenter from the Gaeltacht village of An Spidéal, has demonstrated interest in running for Fianna Fáil in the Galway West division for the upcoming general election, according to Éamon Ó Cuív, Fianna Fáil’s departing TD for Galway West. Ó Cuív has refused to endorse any candidate.
The selection event for this constituency, which includes parts of Galway city, Clifden and a region of south Co Mayo, is set for early September. Insider information reveals that neither of the two incumbent councillors for Connemara, Máirtín Lee or Gerry King, aim to apply. The main contenders from the east of the constituency are reported to be Senator Ollie Crowe and city councillors John Connolly and Eddie Cheevers.
Fianna Fáil has, up until now, nominated 22 candidates across 19 constituencies.
A party representative indicated that throughout August and September, selection conventions are anticipated to take place, with the goal of wrapping up prior to the October 1st budget. The Green Party leads the pack with an official count of 24 candidates and goals to fight in every district.
The Labour Party, with 15 candidates, intends to finalize its remaining conventions as soon as feasible and aims to represent all 43 constituencies. Their newly selected MEP, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, has decided not to run in the upcoming general elections. The selection for his replacement in the Dublin Bay North district is still in progress.
The Social Democrats have concluded 13 conventions with six more on the agenda for the following week. The party doesn’t plan to compete in every district, but is steadily working towards that goal for future elections.
The People Before Profit party has announced 10 confirmed candidates, comprised of six males and four females. The intention is to achieve a balanced gender distribution and compete in every Dáil constituency. The remaining selections will take place towards the end of August and start of September.
Aontú has ratified 21 candidates and aspires to compete in every district. Independent Ireland is in the midst of its selection process, planning to reveal general election candidates from early September. The aim is to represent as many constituencies as feasible, although no final figure has been confirmed.
Sinn Féin has communicated an intention to conclude conventions by their ardfheis at the end of September. The party’s current selections for the Dublin Mid West include Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward, with the possibility of a third candidate still being under consideration. The district, including Clondalkin, Lucan, Palmerstown, Rathcoole, and Saggart, will go from a four to a five-seater in the upcoming election, gaining the electoral segment of Tallaght-Fettercairn.
Ward maintains that they are keeping their options open for nominating a third contender if it seems necessary and feasible. The decision will ultimately rest with their community members, according to him. His unit has convened multiple times to discuss the issue of nomination, collectively concurring that both he and Eoin will vie in the upcoming general election. They also agreed to revisit the conversation regarding the third candidate if needed. In the last Dublin Mid West election, Ó Broin and Ward secured the leading two spots with ease. Speculations suggest that the third spot will probably go to a woman, with newly appointed South Dublin county councilor, Niamh Fennell being a potential choice.