As children all across the nation reset their alarm clocks for school, their parents breathed a collective sigh of relief, eager for a break after one of Europe’s longest school vacations. Uniforms are labelled, school shoes are purchased anew, backpacks are filled with books, pencil boxes, notebooks, and iPads (if needed).
Analytically, it’s a return to school for politics as well. While the political players may argue that they’ve never really left their posts, it’s evident that the political sphere hasn’t had a continuous presence in the national front. It’s expected to assume its regular rhythm next week, once the Cabinet reconvenes after the summer hiatus. From there, it’s anticipated to be a relentless whirl till the inevitable unfolds.
Jennifer Bray’s insights on the Inside Politics podcast underscore the subtle undertones of political urgency that prevailed throughout the seemingly quiet summer.
With the announcement of the upcoming budget, political tensions within the coalition have been simmering. Host Hugh Linehan, together with Pat Leahy and Jennifer Bray, discuss the landscape as politics revs up again. The session wouldn’t be complete without some conjecture regarding the next general election’s schedule. Many fresh faces will contest seats whenever the election is held.
The primary focus has been the election groundwork – studying local election results, crafting candidate strategies for specific constituencies, and developing a wider election strategy. This includes manifesto planning, messaging, and other related aspects.
A recap of leaders like FitzGerald and Haughey’s careers provides three leadership lessons. The economy may not favour one-off budgets, but politically, they are intelligent moves. A prediction for the general election’s schedule will also be released.
As Donohoe casts his gaze on Chambers, he intuits that the lad will assimilate quite well.
There has been fervent speculation surrounding the upcoming election’s timing. It can be confidently revealed that both governmental and non-governmental entities are expecting the polling to take place in November. Simon Harris, last week, shared that he hasn’t had any fresh talks with the Coalition party heads since his pledge to remain as Taoiseach for the full term. His statement is backed by those in the know. It would be advantageous if the trio could resume their discussion soon, considering the tension between the three parties. Some openness might be beneficial.
On the forthcoming Thursday, Labour is scheduled to initiate the ‘think-in’ season at Malahide, Co Dublin. The aim is to get a head start over rivals before the anticipated event congestions prior to the reopening of the Dáil. The party is in the familiar fight that many smaller parties face for significance in the national dialogue and persistence in the elections. Their victory or defeat could be decided by national percentages in the single digits. The surveys suggest that Labour and other small parties are teetering between these outcomes.
Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, is planning to visit the following weekend, giving signals that the Anglo-Irish détente entails more than just enjoying Guinness at Chequers with the Taoiseach. In fact, the significance of such a pastime in the sphere of diplomacy should not be dismissed lightly. Reviving the intricate ties between Dublin and London should be on the foremost list of duties for whoever forms the subsequent government. Starmer, with his Irish-linked entourage, appears enthusiastic about striving for this.
Following these exchanges, the ‘think-in’ season will intensify. Fine Gael will spend a few days midweek in Tullamore. Whereas the subsequent Monday, Greens, Social Democrats, and Sinn Féin are planned to round up. Alongside this, Fianna Fáil’s two-day gathering kicks off that day in south Co Dublin’s Killiney, wrapping up on Tuesday. The Dáil is set to convene again the next day, Wednesday 18th. The budget announcement is pinned for October 1st.
Harris hinted last weekend that this year’s budget will largely mirror those of recent years. There will be welfare upgradation and a few tax reductions. A significant portion of this is merely to stay in line with wage growth; other changes like a potential inheritance tax cut should Fine Gael have its way can be much more politically driven. There will also be the predictable increase in expenditure for healthcare, education, and other services. Although demographic-related costs represent much of this, it is evident that the systematic organisation of spending and its increasing trend needs reform, perhaps in the future.
Harris also pointed to two additional aspects of the budget. One is an enhancement to capital expenditure for water, energy, and housing sectors, funded by government bank stake proceeds. The other is the now-usual “one-time” disbursements in the form of additional welfare stipends or energy grants to be distributed this year. Despite its economic defence being a challenge, it’s politically irrefutable. Even individuals at the government’s fulcrum who consider it incorrect have admitted its inevitability and think it’s defensible.
The budget planning will be swift and intense. Lobbying groups that hold significant power in Irish politics – consistent from one administration to the next – understand that they have optimum leverage in the election-eve month. They will proceed to exploit it to the utmost. Nothing to criticise about that; they are merely advocating for their members to gain a larger piece of the state’s resource pie.
However, we must all be aware of the dynamic. Anticipate a surge in visibility from public sector unions, trade bodies, farmers, business clusters, and other distinct interests in the upcoming weeks. Their narrative will be along the lines of, “Times have never been this dire, and only additional funds for us can mitigate the issue”. Some may indeed have valid points, but they all will certainly believe they should be prioritised above everything else.
The media frequently provides an unchallenged platform for many to state their position. Irish politics and public governance regularly witness those in power or with influential voices exploiting the most significant portion of resources for their self-interest. The likelihood of such a trend altering prior to an election seems over-optimistic. However, a change is certainly due at some point.