“Economic Shocks, Geopolitical Risks: New Norm”

Paschal Donohoe, the Minister for Public Expenditure, has suggested at a gathering of Irish business leaders in London that uncertainties in global geopolitical events and their impact on economy should not be dismissed as unusual occurrences. Speaking at the Mansion House in the City of London’s financial centre, he mentioned that the economic instability caused by wars and unexpected events should be perceived as normal, aligning with historical trends. These hurdles, he added, are challenges governments and businesses must adapt to.

This occasion was organised by the Ireland Funds philanthropic organisation’s Britain branch as a fundraising lunch, mainly aimed at securing donations for the organisation’s charity engagements. With several prominent business figures in attendance, the donations were expected to reach around £100,000 (€117,000), even before the main course.

Notable attendees included Bernard Looney, the ex-CEO of BP, Cathal Deasy, the global head of investment banking for Barclays, Ray O’Rourke, CEO of Laing O’Rourke, and Jeremy Masding, the erstwhile chief executive of Permanent TSB. Alison Rose, ex-NatWest chief executive, senior execs from Bank of Ireland, and legal firms Mason Hayes and Curran, William Fry and Arthur Cox were also present. Rory Godson, founder of strategic advisory firm Powerscourt, who recently sold it for an estimated £50 million was also in the crowd.

Mr. Donohoe communicated that previous economic stability was an exception rather than the norm and suggested that a return to the unpredictability that characterised the first part of the 20th century was likely. He reassured that the Republic’s economy would handle any consequences. During a conversation with Mr. Godson, a former Sunday Times senior editor, he highlighted his conviction that Ireland’s corporate tax boost would not be sustainable, leading to a reduction in receipts, and explained that was the reason for running budget surpluses, which improved the State’s credit rating for future borrowings.

“It is crucial for us to ensure that we have sufficient resources to manage the effects of a declining corporation tax at the required time,” said Mr Donohoe. Additionally, he lauded Martin Fraser, presently serving as the Ambassador of the Republic to the UK. Fraser’s contributions as the Department of the Taoiseach’s secretary general were invaluable for 11 years, particularly during difficult times such as the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Minister depicted Mr Fraser as amongst Ireland’s most excellent public servants, eliciting claps from those present. The ambassador, reputed for his meticulous avoidance of publicity during his tenure as the capital’s chief civil servant, appeared taken aback as Mr Donohoe humorously predicted that Fraser would ‘have words’ with him when they returned to their seating. “I’ll have to endure sitting beside him.”

Mr Donohoe expressed confidence that the incumbent Government Coalition could triumph in the imminent general election, projected to occur within the subsequent eleven months. His comments came after a recent poll indicated that support for Sinn Féin had dipped by 5 percentage points, setting Fine Gael on an even playing field with them. “Our goal is to secure the win,” he declared.

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