In an unprecedented shift, eastern German voters turned away from the traditional political parties in favour of populist platforms during the critical elections in the eastern states on Sunday. The political shake-up, occurring a year prior to the federal elections, saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leading the vote count in Thuringia and coming in a close second in Saxony.
Although AfD managed to garner 30.5% and 31.5% of votes in the two respective states, they will likely struggle to establish any governance due to their inability to form alliances with other parties.
Meanwhile, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which has populist leanings from both ends of the political spectrum, won 16 per cent of votes in Thuringia and 12 per cent in Saxony during its inaugural election outing.
When combined, the AfD and BSW, which are relatively new parties at 11 years and 11 months old, respectively, managed to receive 47% and 42% of votes in Thuringia and Saxony. With nearly 5 million constituents, the politics at these two states represent only 8% of Germany’s electorate. However, due to the high voter turnout in both states, the sentiments of the eastern voters will likely resonate in Berlin prior to the forthcoming federal election set for September 2025.
The decisive themes for the election were migration, security and energy, issues which are commonly addressed at the federal level, demonstrating the need for an increased focus on these areas. The surge in popularity for populist parties has drastically transformed the political landscape in east Germany post-unification, primarily at the cost of the mainstream political parties.
In response to a number of recent fatal knife attacks, the AfD increased its advocacy for restrictions on immigration, which gained them a sizable amount of support. Alice Weidel, the leader of AfD, hailed the Sunday results as a ‘historic’ moment for her party and a sign for an impending downfall for Olaf Scholz’s federal government in Berlin. She reiterated her party’s willingness for “constructive cooperation” and criticized the CDU’s move to block coalitions with her party as ‘undemocratic’.
Senior officials from Berlin’s CDU party, likely to emerge victorious in both state elections, reaffirmed their rigid stance against forming coalitions with the AfD on a Sunday evening. Carsten Linnemann, the CDU’s general secretary in the opposition of Berlin, expressed his unease at the AfD’s growing strength, dubbing his party the ‘east’s political shield’. The evening’s major victors, apart from AfD, were the BSW.
Originating from the Left Party, the BSW has managed to attract voters from all parties, including former Left supporters, with its call for a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. As the BSW’s influence grows, party leader Sahra Wagenknecht has signalled readiness to back CDU-led governments in both eastern states, provided they reimagine Germany’s foreign policy and amplify their viewpoints in Berlin.
Dr Wagenknecht spoke with pride of the new party, stating how it has drastically altered the political scene. She shared her hope for a more rational approach to politics in Germany, criticising the AfD’s ‘hysteria’. Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, experienced a regrettable evening as his unliked tri-party coalition in Berlin faced significant setbacks, beyond their persistently weak track record in eastern areas.
Initial results demonstrated that both parliaments removed the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), with the Greens barely reaching the five per cent threshold. The Chancellor’s SPD didn’t perform much better. In light of pending elections in Brandenburg on September 22nd, the stability of Scholz’s administration is uncertain. As Professor Karl-Rudolf Korte, a political scientist at the University of Duisburg-Essen noted, political circles in Berlin are becoming increasingly anxious. However, they are reluctant to scrutinise the developments in the east, seeing little prospect of finding solutions.