Fresh data reveals that for a full year, from July 2023 to June 2024, the Earth witnessed temperatures a constant 1.5 degrees higher than the average pre-fossil fuel values. During these 12 months, scientists have recorded the maximum temperatures in history, showing an increase of 1.64 degrees compared to the era before industrialisation.
These findings don’t necessarily suggest a failure of global leaders in upholding their commitment to restraining the Earth’s warming to 1.5C by the end of this century. However, as each decade’s average temperatures are considered, the prolonged heat spell undoubtedly had an increased exposure to extreme weather conditions.
Furthermore, an enduring elevation beyond these temperatures boosts the danger of unforeseen and devastating tipping points.
These results were obtained after thorough analysis by Copernicus Climate Change Service, a part of EU’s space program. This agency uses a multitude of measurements gathered from satellites, vessels, aircrafts, and weather observatories to monitor essential climate parameters.
They concluded that June 2024, being hotter than all preceding Junes, represented the 12th consecutive month with temperatures surpassing the 1850-1900 average by 1.5 degrees. However, these figures may not be corroborated by other climate institutions, as some of the months recorded temperatures only marginally above 1.5 degrees.
The director of Copernicus, Carlo Buontempo, mentioned that rather than being an anomaly, these figures depict a persistent and substantial shift in our climate. He also warned of more record-breaking temperatures unless we halt the addition of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere and oceans.
Whether it’s the emission from a coal-fueled power plant or engine exhaust from transportation vehicles, each carbon molecule contributes to heating the Earth by trapping heat and distorting weather patterns. As the Earth continues to heat up, the mitigation of humans and ecosystems becomes increasingly challenging.
Aditi Mukherji, one of the collaborators on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, has expressed concern, stating, “This is undesirably grim news. We have observed that every slight increase in global warming amplifies the occurrence of intense events. With a global temperature rise of 1.5C, we experienced some of the record-breaking heatwaves this year.”
Certain ecosystems demonstrate higher susceptibility than others. As per the IPCC’s latest scientific review, a temperature rise of 1.5C will eradicate between 70% and 90% of tropical coral reefs. If the increase reaches 2 degrees, nearly all these reef-systems are at risk of complete extinction.
In 2021, a Guardian survey of several hundreds of IPCC authors discovered that three in every four authors anticipate earth’s temperature to increase by a minimum of 2.5 degrees by the end of the century. Almost half of these scientists predict the temperature to surpass 3 degrees. Although these increments may appear small, they potentially signal the divergence between widespread human distress and a “slightly dystopian” future.
François Gemenne, another author of the IPCC report and the director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège, has said that the climate crisis is not an either-or situation. He comments, “It’s not just 1.5C and then doomsday – a change of 0.1C is significant because it refers to average global temperatures, resulting in noticeable local temperature ranges.”
He emphasises that under the most manageable of circumstances, individuals must prepare for a hotter world, and strengthen their response strategies. He adds, “Adaptation is not a confession that our ongoing efforts are ineffectual.” – Guardian.