As we circle back to the ever-prevalent topic of politics, it is evident that crucial discussions revolving the impending elections need to be taken in the coming week. The announcement of these decisions may or may not occur, however, the legislative calendar necessitates that definitive actions be taken shortly.
Thus, the Taoiseach and Tánaiste, who have managed to steer clear of the issue up until this point, are confronted with substantial decisions to make. But first, it’s essential to understand the schedule’s limitations.
The Finance Bill, passing many budget-related decisions, was introduced last week and is set to traverse the Oireachtas this Wednesday. Also launching next week, is the Social Welfare Bill, undergirding other budget steps, incorporating the double-double child benefit and welfare stipends. This would be concluded by October’s end.
Civil servants are operating under these upcoming dates for pushing through the Finance Bill: the Dáil’s second stage is earmarked for October 16th next Wednesday; the committee stage is scheduled for November 5th; the conclusive report and final stage – November 20th; the Seanad – November 27th; Seanad’s committee stage – December 4th; and Seanad’s report and final stage – December 11th.
Turbulence with Sinn Féin and sightings of Micheál Martin’s campaign posters are foreboding haste towards an impending election.
A slight tension is being felt in the interaction between Simon Harris and Micheál Martin.
Whether Ireland is the prime location for a child’s upbringing, it definitely holds one of the top spots for finance ministers.
Sinn Féin’s self-assurance is starting to shake with Mary Lou McDonald’s optimism of her possible resurgence seeming bleak.
Assuming a November or even early December election is on cards, the whole process needs to compress into the coming month. Bount by custom and constitution, the dissolution of the Dáil must occur 18 to 25 days before the voting day. Ergo, calculating for a desired polling day, for instance, on the 15th of November, the final and earliest time for dissolution would be October 24th and October 16th, respectively.
A previously anticipated date of November 15th is now increasingly looking like it could be delayed, perhaps by a week, two weeks, or even three weeks. This allows the government till November 16th for the dissolution of the Dáil, assuming that the polling day could be as late as December 7th, if it extended to a Saturday. Confidence can be placed in the fact that a thorough plan outlining this has been enforced in both the Taoiseach’s and the Tánaiste’s office.
With limited time, the government faces the challenge of tackling significant parliamentary work, which importantly includes supplementary estimates. This condensed course of action demands the backing of the Coalition parties. This puts Micheál Martin and Simon Harris at the helm of some critical decision-making.
It appears as though Simon Harris is inclined towards an early election, considering it’s in his best interest. The decision lies with Martin on whether to grant this desire or not. Harris’ next course of action would then depend on Martin’s refusal and insistence on waiting till 2025.
As of now, decisions are yet to be made, but recent events suggest that a consensus on a 2024 election among the Coalition parties is more probable. Micheál Martin’s campaign posters, displaying the motto “Moving Forward Together”, generated widespread attention and instigated controversy. This phrase was subtly mentioned by the Taoiseach in his doorstep interviews on Friday, being a rather masterful troll.
As Mattie McGrath expressed the general sentiment of the Dáil, and perhaps of us all, on Tuesday, all the buzzing about the election has been exasperating everyone. A noteworthy consideration is the currently strong push for a 2024 election. If this initiative fails, it will have political implications. This surge of energy must be directed somewhere.
Finally, the proposal’s main rationale, addressing the challenges of the government’s key opposers, has only been heightened this week.
Amid the furore of the scandal involving its former media spokesperson, Sinn Féin seemed to vanish from the public platform. Despite the constant stream of announcements from the party’s press unit, inquiries remained disregarded.
[Further queries awaiting Sinn Féin concerning endorsements for underage sex criminal, opens in new window.]
When cornered in the Dáil, Mary Lou McDonald suggested that during any debate, Sinn Féin would highlight occasions where Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil legislators had written character testimonials for convicted criminals. This gives Sinn Féin an opportunity to comment, but having a comment does not equate to having an excuse. It is neither a resolution to the queries the party faces regarding its own behaviour nor a similar circumstance.
Sinn Féin’s predicament is complex, resting on claims that are tough to accept: that no one saw the press officer they had expelled due to sex offence suspicions even though he was directly in their line of sight at a photoshoot with few attendees; that the Human Resources manager didn’t make her superiors aware when the British Heart Foundation flagged the references; and primarily, that in a party known for its thoroughness, no one had a clue of the happenings.
Though these assertions can’t be definitively disproven, they seem implausible. This, without a doubt, adversely impacts the party; constantly presenting unconvincing arguments always does.
The turmoil persisted this week, with one of McDonald’s TDs defecting and anticipated to continue next week with discussions on child protection in Dáil. Not only do these issues matter in their own right, they also hinder the party from focusing on its primary concern: housing, housing, housing.
Even an inept political strategist could discern how these events bolster the argument for an immediate election.