At the annual convention of the Green Party held at RDS, an overwhelming sense of positivity and enthusiastic energy could be felt by those present on the surprisingly sunlit Saturday. A boisterous crowd of several hundred supporters enthusiastically rallied behind their representatives and nominees, while the head of the party, Eamon Ryan, staunchly defended its governmental track record and established his criteria for upcoming coalition prospects. Despite polls indicating potential notable setbacks for the party, the political fervour at the event was unusually intense.
It relies on the reasonable presumption that the forthcoming election will witness an increased public concern over climate change compared to the previous one. However, the likely impact on the party’s voting due to its time spent in government may not be adequately accounted for. The impending election will undoubtedly see a surge in negative sentiment towards the party compared to the previous one. Numerous independent TDs are notorious for their continual criticism of the Greens, particularly in rural communities. Ryan himself often bears the brunt of this negative sentiment.
At the Green Party conference, Ireland’s anomalous position regarding local democracy dominated the conversation along with the potential for increased adoption of Green policies than previously acknowledged.
Currently, polls suggest a modest 4% support for the Greens – a decline from the 7% the party secured in the 2020 general elections (and 6% in the preceding local elections). While large scale national opinion surveys may not entirely capture the support for smaller parties, which tend to concentrate on specific electorates where they have a competitive edge, these numbers still concern the party’s strategists.
All of the 12 seats the party clinched in the prior elections appear to be under threat, including Ryan’s own Dublin Bay South seat. This could be precarious, especially if Fine Gael, as anticipated, regains a constituency it has always viewed as secure and where it has historically won two out of four seats.
In the realm of Irish politics, minor parties often feel the pressure, something that could lead to fatigue within their ranks. However, an energetic atmosphere was evident over the past weekend with little indication of these pressures affecting morale. Ryan, in an engaging mood, greeted old friends and supporters, some of whom were present during the party’s previous tenure in government, ended with a devastating loss of all its seats due to the financial crisis. They would joke about how it mirrored the downfall of Saigon.
Now, they’re able to find amusement in the memory, albeit barely.
The memory of that challenging time is indelibly etched on the collective mind of the whole party. Their chief aim is to prevent a recurrence of such a disaster, which would shelve environmental concerns from government business for years. Achieving this will require more than just good intentions, it demands tactical political manoeuvring.
With elections on the horizon, it is a known fact that coalition dynamics will be tested amongst the three ruling parties. Ryan doesn’t dodge the issue, instead, he criticises his partners for their spate of ambitious promises made at recent party conferences. Simultaneously, he empathises with them, declaring that the party’s mission is to maintain a moderate political stance. As both the left and right aim their arrows at him, one wonders if the middle ground will provide sufficient cover for them all.