Jim Allister and the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party are seemingly determined to cause significant political turmoil to the Democratic Unionist Party, mirroring Nigel Farage’s own ambitions for the Conservatives in the imminent UK general election.
Polling data suggests that Farage, as the leader of the Reform UK party, is set to exacerbate Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s current woes by securing tens of thousands of essential votes that could have otherwise bolstered the Conservatives in their effort to ward off the damage anticipated from Labour on election day.
The influential political stature of Farage has traversed across the Irish Sea and intriguingly has the potential to determine the manner in which unionists cast their votes come Thursday.
The political stance of Allister and Farage suggests an affinity between the two, emphasised greatly by their shared enthusiasm for Brexit and their propensity to cause political upheavals.
A truth and reconciliation commission in Northern Ireland would necessitate a considerable degree of reciprocal trust.
It thus seemed fitting that prior to Farage assuming leadership, the Reform UK party under the guise of Richard Tice, would forge an alliance with the TUV. Despite Farage choosing to step into the limelight and take up the reins of Reform UK, the Reform-TUV coalition seemed like a solid partnership.
However, Farage, true to his maverick nature, decided to take his unique path, stating, “As far as the Northern Ireland thing is concerned, I want to convey that while there have been previous negotiations, I will be endorsing Ian Paisley and Sammy Wilson.”
Farage’s seemingly trivial reference to “the Northern Ireland thing” didn’t sit well with the TUV leader, and his endorsement of Wilson in East Antrim and particularly Paisley in North Antrim, where Allister is also competing, further aggravated the perceived insult.
In an attempt to control the unfolding situation, Ben Habib, Reform’s co-deputy leader, tweeted his party’s unwavering support for the TUV and all its Northern Irish contenders.
Yet, despite his emphatic punctuation and capitalisation, Habib’s statement failed to make sense as Allister reluctantly admitted in an interview on BBC Radio Ulster’s Talkback programme, describing the situation as “rather incongruous”.
Allister’s wry reply was a remark on Farage’s unrivalled input to the Brexit discussion, despite having “certain peculiar characteristics that emerge now and then”. Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley keenly noted, making sure to get Farage’s support documented on Paisley’s election pamphlets.
However, though somewhat amusing, this episode is merely a diversion from the main focus of the Northern Irish campaign, namely, finding out who will have the final guffaw. 14 out of 19 constituencies in the North are being contended by the TUV. Even though victories are unlikely, their participation could potentially inflict significant harm on the DUP, particularly its leader Gavin Robinson, and Unionism more generally.
Currently, the seat distribution from the 2019 general election in the House of Commons stands at eight seats for the DUP, seven for Sinn Féin, two for the SDLP, and one for the Alliance. The DUP’s most precarious positions are in East Belfast, Lagan Valley, and South Antrim.
One of the most heated battles is in East Belfast, where Gavin Robinson of the DUP attempts to fend off the challenge from Naomi Long of the Alliance. In the 2019 election, he barely maintained a lead over Long, with a majority of just over 1800 votes. John Ross of the TUV, although not a participant in the 2019 general election, secured 3087 votes in the 2022 Assembly election. His participation in this current election might steal enough votes to dethrone Robinson, making this a potential North election headline.
In South Antrim, during the 2019 general election, the DUP’s Paul Girvan triumphed over his closest competitor, the Ulster Unionist Danny Kinahan, by a margin of 2689 votes. However, for this election, the UUP’s candidate is Robin Swann, who has gained popularity due to his positive influence as a health minister during the Covid saga.
In the recent Assembly election, Mel Lucas, the current hopeful for TUV, didn’t win a seat despite securing a respectable 4,371 votes. If similar voting patterns repeat, it may pave the way for Swann, supplanting Girvan. There are forecasts from the DUP about potential inroads for Declan Kearney of Sinn Féin, due to the fractionalisation of the unionist vote, although this seems rather improbable.
Lagan Valley has TUV’s Lorna Smyth vying for a seat that DUP’s Jonathan Buckley is eager to keep, following Jeffrey Donaldson’s vacancy. In the previous election, Donaldson led by 6,499 votes against Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood, who is once again contesting for the same constituency. In the election two years back, Smyth had secured 3,488 votes, falling short of Donaldson by 3,000 votes, but the current political climate implies a different trend. Unionist vote subdividing could favour Alliance.
Hence, it’s evident that there’s a significant challenge for both the DUP and unionism overall. Allister, on his part, is unwavering in his stance, echoing the TUV’s election propaganda of refusal to EU and Sinn Féin rule. Even though TUV didn’t participate in the previous Westminster election, assisting the DUP, Allister feels no remorse for plunging into the political whirl this time. His reasons lie in his belief that the Windsor Framework deal endorsement by Donaldson and his former deputy, Gavin Robinson, to reintroduce the powersharing government at Stormont was a duplicitous act that lost the voters’ faith.
Allister asserts that the TUV isn’t causing a rift within the unionist camp. The DUP is fighting back, with Robinson insisting more alterations are essential to the Irish Sea boundary agreement. He voiced concern against “those who aren’t capable of winning and those who aren’t bothered about fragmenting the pro-union vote, leading to a decrease in pro-union MPs representing Northern Ireland in the Parliament”.
To summarise, it boils down to whether most unionists continue to be as agitated as Allister is about the Brexit consequences or if they find Robinson’s practical viewpoint acceptable.
Should the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lose a number of seats and find itself on equal footing with Sinn Féin or even trailing behind, a flurry of accusations would likely ensue. This could enhance Sinn Féin’s standing, lending support to the push for a Border poll on Ireland’s unification by the campaigning group, Ireland’s Future. This turn of events could potentially bring about another significant political shift.
Concerns may arise regarding the stability of power-sharing, especially if a fragmented DUP, weakened by internal strife, emerges.
In the event of such an outcome, it seems that Allister would not hesitate to capitalise on the DUP’s weaknesses, much like Farage’s approach to the Conservatives. In a recent BBC interview, when queried about the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) skewing in favour of Naomi Long in East Belfast, he commented, “I refuse to bear the DUP’s burden if they lose their Unionist voters’ trust.”