In 1992, I took up residence in an apartment situated on Dublin’s Parliament Street. At the time, the four inhabitants of the restored 18th-century structure were the sole dwellers of the area. Apart from a little newsagents tucked away towards the Liffey, accompanied by the old Parliament Inn (a rare haven for the gay community) and Read’s Cutlers, Parliament Street was largely unpopulated and commercially desolate, with its silence interrupted only by the hum of passing buses from the nearby harbour. A sharp contrast to how lively and bustling the place has now become.
However, what might not have been obvious at the time, 1992 was seen as the nadir in the demographic trends of Dublin city. The city centre’s inhabitants were reduced by half over the last thirty years leading to 1991. This substantial shift was primarily due to a profound shift in employment structures. The 1960s witnessed a decrease in the small-scale industrial businesses which either shut down or relocated, resulting in an astounding 30% decrease in industrial floor space in the city core by 1974, correlated with a 550,000sq m reduction.
As employment disappeared, so did the city’s heart. There was a lack of interest to inhabit the place which had become an epitome of urban decay. A study conducted by the Dublin Inner City Partnership unveiled that the physical environment’s degeneration was intensified by the scarring of long-term road projects and the lack of effective preservation policies or restoration initiatives. Neglected sites left a gaping void in the urban tapestry and centuries-old Georgian domiciles were dilapidating; the city was visibly wilting.
However, over the last three decades, things have taken a turn for the better. Dublin city saw a transformation, fuelled by urban development incentives aimed at renovation. The population living between the canals started to grow, rendering the area more dynamic not just for the locals, but also for tourists and migrants, inevitably changing the city’s face.
Regrettably, this atmosphere of transformation is under threat. I often hear people of all age groups voice their reluctance to venture to the city any longer. Recently, there has been a discernible shift, indicating the possible onset of a distressing urban pattern. The combination of skyrocketing rent, escalating crime rates, inadequate venues, an overabundance of commercial offices and a dearth of residential projects, topped with inflated prices are threatening to choke the life out of the city. 30 years of progress seems to be taking a U-turn, but are we moving backward again?
The statistics are far from encouraging. A 2.5% fall in the hospitality industry’s revenue gleaned from entertainment venues such as bars, hotels, and restaurants was experienced in Dublin during 2024’s first quarter. This represents the most significant shrinkage since 2021, which marked the end of the pandemic. Despite the continued influx of tourists, local patrons have significantly reduced. The riots that raged last year have evidently tarnished Dublin’s reputation, leaving it facing potential security issues.
A recent study commissioned by the Irish Daily Mail and conducted by Amárach Research discovered that safety concerns were prompting over half of Dublin’s residents to lessen city visits. Simultaneously, travel restrictions or total cessation of visitations were recorded amongst 40% of those surveyed nationwide. A whopping 82% of this hesitant group admitted to stopping city-based shopping behaviours, and 60% are no longer dining out. Following last year’s riots, “Black Friday” city sales for local retailers dropped drastically, registering a 90% decline compared to the previous year.
New data provided by the Licensed Vintners Association reveals that an overwhelming 96% of pub proprietors are anxious about the cities’ street surveillance levels, as they have safety worried patrons. Almost half of all Dublin-based pub owners reported that their customers have voiced safety fears about the city’s streets within the last year. A study conducted by Fianna Fáil disclosed that over 70% have publically observed drug transactions, with 65% witnessing unsocial behaviour firsthand within the city centre. About 1,500 Dublin residents were surveyed, and a concerning 90% believed that antisocial behaviour has deteriorated in the city over the last decade.
Cities are volatile habitats that can quickly descend into decline, and Dublin is not exempt. San Francisco, which until recently was one of America’s leading cities, portrays a phenomenon known as the ‘doughnut effect’. It describes how previously thriving city centres can deteriorate rapidly, leaving a vacant core enveloped by flourishing suburbs. This pattern, often heightened by prohibitive rents and escalating prices, propels both individuals and businesses away from city centres, a change that can occur with alarming speed.
The Covid-19 pandemic has seen occupancy rates in downtown San Francisco offices drop below 50%, adversely impacting the city’s tax income and intensifying existing problems such as homelessness and insufficient public service funding. This diminishing economic activity results in budget cuts for necessary services, making the city center less appealing for businesses and residents, leading to a vicious cycle of urban decline. Large sections of San Francisco, once renowned for its beauty, are now reminiscent of a dystopian metropolis. Such a scenario might already be taking root in Dublin.
Insecurity aside, a strong financial indicator of this ‘doughnut effect’ is office occupancy and vacancy, since the commercial development sector is recognized for its expedient cyclical highs and lows. Taking a stroll around Dublin leaves no doubt that the city’s commercial property market is experiencing a slump. Office blocks are deserted, vacancies are increasing, and the relentless investment and construction has ground to a halt. As capital flees, so do the people.
In addition to the commercial dip during the day, Dublin’s nighttime economy is in a desolate state. The younger crowd, still eager for a night out in town, mourn the shortage of clubs, venues, and alternatives to the conventional pub crawl. Comparatively, New Zealand, with an economy similar in size to ours, estimates that their core nighttime economy generates nearly $10bn (€5.6 billion) and supports over 180,000 jobs — making up 7% of the total employment. Conversely, in Ireland, revenue from pubs and nightclubs is a modest €2.6 billion (as at 2023), employing only 43,316 people.
These diverse issues can be condensed into one straightforward reality: there’s a shortage of individuals living centrally between the canals, and the exodus of people and capital from the city highlights this fact. A city is made by its residents, not visitors. An inner city population target needs to be established, which will guide other aspects such as planning, transport, and social infrastructure – including schools, hospitals, and recreational facilities. By law, the balance of office to residential developments should lean towards homes. Measures that prioritize residents over tourists are essential, including stringent restrictions on Airbnb and short-term rentals.
Healthy urban landscapes abound in diversity, offering their inhabitants inclusive spaces for living, commercial activities, and leisure. The famed urban theorist from America, Jane Jacobs, held the belief that the key to prosperous cities lies in vibrant streets. These streets, serving multiple purposes, combine domestic, business, and cultural facets. Residents monitoring their own streets offer a form of community policing while this mixed-function approach allows a city to be resilient and adaptive to evolving lifestyles. This not only rejuvenates the city core but also contributes to establishing a vibrant and secure city environment.
No more delays can be afforded. The sense that the city is slowly eroding that many are experiencing is indeed tangible. The degradation of urban areas can be likened to Hemingway’s notable portrayal of bankruptcy – initially gradual but then accelerates suddenly. Over the past three decades, Dublin underwent a dramatic transformation. To prevent stagnation and ensure constant growth, the city now demands a comprehensive blueprint extending over the next 30 years.