At last, sunshine graces southern England after enduring the dreariest June. It’s a Sunday afternoon and Father’s Day is being celebrated in the garden of the Hollybush pub, positioned on the somewhat rural outskirts of western Bristol.
The scene is a picture-perfect representation of English life to any observer. The idyllic pub roasts being enjoyed on sun-kissed picnic tables, panting companions tethered to tables, all set against Somerset’s lush, undulating background. Of course, the emerging buzz surrounding the upcoming July 4th electoral round in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s constituency is inevitable. Rees-Mogg, a member of the Conservative Party and ally to Boris Johnson, faces a potential threat to his position from the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage.
However, an anomaly in this English painting presents itself: the local Reform UK candidate, dining on roast pork, Yorkshire pudding, and gravy. Paul MacDonnell, a 63-year-old, slightly unconventional and chatty policy nerd, hails from Dún Laoghaire, Dublin.
MacDonnell regards his inaugural electoral race with his own telescope of data. “I’ve never had so much fun in my whole life,” he says, “For me it’s like the Hubble telescope. It’s all data, data, data.” According to recent poll figures, MacDonnell, a tech think tank executive, stands a chance to dethrone Rees-Mogg. This could orchestrate one of the most monumental “Portillo moments” – a memorable defeat of a high-profile Conservative Party figure. The Labour party is anticipated to comfortably conquer the election.
Residing under the mantle of a relatively new party, steeped in English nationalism, the Irishman, MacDonnell, acknowledges the peculiarity of his candidacy. He is unfailingly polite in every aspect, including his exuberant championing of unfettered free speech and a minimal state intervention approach that even outclasses most libertarians.
As he shares, “There are quirks of being Irish in Britain that can annoy some Irish people. One is that in Britain, the Irish are not seen as foreign. They see us as Domesticus Hibernicus. It never even crosses their mind that the Irish are foreign. We are completely integrated.”
Both Rees-Mogg and MacDonnell are contesting for seats in Somerset North East and Hanham, a constituency sculpted by novel electoral boundary alterations, which is partially the source of Rees-Mogg’s difficulties.
In 2010, Rees-Mogg became the Tory MP for North East Somerset, a largely rural region known to be a hotbed for affluent conservatives, under the former boundaries. This ideal base for Rees-Mogg saw him secure a considerable majority of almost 15,000 in the previous election.
Recently, the area’s electoral boundaries have been redrawn. The rural electorate, constituting approximately half of the constituency, was transferred into a newly formed zone, allowing for the integration of more urban and working-class boroughs from the surrounding Kingswood area. These regions traditionally lean towards Labour. This shift makes Rees-Mogg’s quintessentially upper-class humour less fitting.
While it is not expected that MacDonnell will secure a victory, there is a chance that he could scrape off enough votes from Rees-Mogg to enable Labour nominee, Dan Norris, to succeed. The most recent YouGov survey conducted this week puts Norris just under 41 per cent, followed by Rees-Mogg at 35 per cent and MacDonnell at 11 per cent.
Should Farage’s party not exist to poach right-wing votes from the Tories, contenders like Rees-Mogg could find victory within easy grasp.
MacDonnell, whose criticism is often directed at the Reform party’s strident anti-immigration arguments alleged to border on covert racism, distances himself from this. His stance is that the UK government has grown excessively powerful, infringing on individual rights, and that free speech, in today’s climate of identity politics, is under threat.
MacDonnell, the son of a publican who owned the Rathfarnham Inn later renamed Sarah Curran in the wealthy southern Dublin village, has served in various policy positions both in Ireland, where he was affiliated with an insurance lobby group and abroad. He has resided in the UK in the late 1980s and then in Brussels. He resided in Brussels during the 2016 Brexit, which he opposed. Around this time, he made the decision to settle in England.
MacDonnell embraced England as his new home, deliberately choosing a location that was geographically convenient and easily accessible from Dublin, London, and Brussels, where his business was primarily based. As a result, he chose to live in Wells, Somerset.
Following his dissatisfaction with how the Tories handled the first Covid lockdown in 2020, a move he describes as a “scientifically unfounded insult to freedom”, he promptly resigned. In his own words, he has been somewhat “radicalised” by the Covid lockdowns, which had the unintended consequence of fast-tracking his political career.
Aware of the impending elections of the year, he made an online application to become a candidate, having integrated himself into the Reform party. Notably, his interview didn’t include Nigel Farage, a character he is yet to meet personally. His political stance was enquired, and he made a reference to Javier Milei – Argentina’s radical president, affirming his belief in his principles. The response was positive, confirming his inclusion.
Friedrich Hayek, the renowned Austrian economist and Milei’s inspiration, frequently features in MacDonnell’s quotes. He also refers to various philosophers including René Descartes, Karl Popper, Daniel Dennett, and Iain McGilchrist within the first few minutes of conversation.
MacDonnell, a newcomer to politics, primarily conducts canvassing efforts on his own; however, he is often aided by a small team of local Reform supporters who volunteer to distribute leaflets. His day often starts at 10 am and includes leaflet distribution and engaging conversations with locals.
Following a pub lunch, he continues his door-knocking campaign on nearby working-class estates that have defected from Kingswood. Responses vary, with some residents not answering their doors, others expressing vague interest and a select few openly vowing to endorse him in the election. His urbane vibe and Irish charm often intrigue the locals, who are considering voting for Reform UK.
Interestingly, he rarely mentions his party leader. However, he does occasionally draw comparisons between Farage and the “ramrod” on a Roman boat’s rostrum. During one of his campaigns, he gets thrilled by sight of St George’s flags flying from several homes, presupposing the flag owners as potential Reform voters. This observation later is challenged when reminded of England’s scheduled football match in the Euros against Serbia, potentially explaining the conspicuous silence and abundant flags.
Rees-Mogg has opted not to engage with The Irish Times or permit others to accompany him as he woos voters. In the Somerset town known as Keynsham, where his constituency headquarters are situated, the Tory office is empty, unnoticeably situated down a alley beside a discount alcohol store.
Situated a half-hour drive away is the charming small village of West Harptree, in which Rees-Mogg resides in a country manor valued at approximately £3 million (equivalent to €3.5 million). Across the street, in the Crown Inn pub, some bar-goers offer hearty nicknames for Rees-Mogg, fondly calling him “Moggsy”. However, their attentions quickly turn to the imminent Serbia match rather than delve into political conversations.
Rees-Mogg is later quoted by the UK’s Independent publication warning individuals not to stake too much faith in polls for completely accurate predictions. To retain his Westminster position against the challenge posed by Reform’s MacDonnell, the influential Tory figure can only hope his assertions hold true.