Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller suggests that global markets are highly anticipating a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential elections. This speculation is apparent within different financial sectors, including bank stocks, cryptocurrency trends and the volatile stock price for Truth Social, a social media firm belonging to Trump.
Despite Truth Social’s tendency for erratic stock fluctuations owned to its status as a meme stock, Druckenmiller maintains that the market’s expectations increasingly lean towards a Trump triumph. The forecast market, Polymarket, echoes this sentiment, with indications that Trump has a likelihood of victory around 62%.
Accusations of potential market manipulation in favour of Trump have emerged on Polymarket, but this seems unlikely, given the consistent odds offered by other betting platforms. Regardless, investors are cautioned not to presume a guaranteed Trump win, with many pointing to Trump’s surprising poll performance in 2016 and 2020. However, they emphasise that 2024 could be an entirely different scenario.
Polling expert Nate Silver highlights that Trump’s past victories corresponded to a non-response bias, where Trump’s supporters were less likely to participate in polls, thus distorting the data. Pollsters have begun adopting increasingly robust methods to compensate for this issue, according to Silver.
A surprise result that underplays Kamala Harris’s achievements may not be less probable than one for Trump. Silver noted that the race remains evenly matched. While many dislike uncertainty, analysts like Silver often face criticism for emphasising the unpredictability and closeness of the race. Investors, however, should be open to dealing with uncertainties instead of speculating on the future.