The elections of today serve as the catalyst for transformation. Whatever the outcomes are, they are sure to reshape the political landscape, along with the establishment of a fresh European Parliament, providing the impetus to nominate a new Commission President and an Irish Commissioner. All these events ultimately lead to a general election.
Simultaneously, the consequences of the British general election taking place on the 4th of July will reverberate here. Furthermore, the United States is poised for a pivotal presidential election on November 5th, marking a significance parallel to Abraham Lincoln’s revolutionary election held in 1860, right before the onset of the Civil War.
No doubt, the scenario of another American Civil War remains far-fetched. However, a Trump administration could bring turmoil in an era already christened as the “Era of Crises”. In a mere span of 15 years, events like the global recession, large-scale migration, Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine crisis, and inflation have left pronounced impacts on the world. Alongside these rapid developments, we are only witnessing the initial phases of technological changes and their cultural implications. Ageing, climate change, and Generative AI constitute the pressing issues of our era.
Intriguingly, despite these challenges, life appears to be rather pleasant for many of us. It’s hardly surprising, considering we now enjoy a longer lifespan and have fewer concerns. Specifically, since our induction into the EEC in 1973 which was later renamed EC and then EU, our life expectancy has increased by 11 years and birth rates decreased from 22 to 11 per 1,000 of the population. Adding to this the boon of full employment and the joy of overseas vacations, life seems rather enjoyable. Yet, unhappiness is prevalent among numerous individuals.
We have moved on from an era when Ireland was a country bound by communal rituals like attending Mass and matches. Today, communal interactions and public discourse are just as likely to happen virtually than physically. Life is experienced through the digital lens and in hues boosted by technology. While there’s an unprecedented level of wealth across most stratas of society, a sense of community is scarce and is replaced with substantial uncertainty. It’s ironic that this political campaign, despite being on its final leg, hasn’t seen considerable political deliberation or public curiosity in the fundamental problems it should address. Ultimately, whether we choose to vote or abstain, the repercussions of our choices are bound to be significant for the coming five years.
Our lavish lifestyle, though not as satisfying as the advertisements suggest, has had a detrimental impact on our planet. This week, a significant event occurred in the UK. For the first time, the Asian hornet, a foreign species introduced from France, has managed to survive the harsh British winter. With a diet consisting of up to 50 honey bees per day, these foreign invaders have the potential to wreak havoc on our native pollinators and overall biodiversity.
Global warming denial has transformed from straightforward opposition into mockery, procrastination, and the shifting of accountability. The choices we make today are bound to have an immediate impact.
The future makeup of the new European Parliament is crucial, as they share legislative responsibilities with the Commission and their consent is necessary to install a new Commission and its president. In an indirect but immediate manner, it will shape the political environment surrounding the Nature Restoration Law on June 17th. When the parliament, after a vigorous public campaign, approved the proposal presented by the EU Commission, it stumbled upon reaching the council, representative of the national governments, for final approval. Seemingly routine bureaucratic manoeuvres were employed to hinder and derail the process as some national governments unexpectedly went rogue at the last moment. In ten days’ time, ministers will convene once more in an additional attempt to push this law through. It’s a critical situation, possibly the final opportunity in the foreseeable future.
Inconjunction, there will also be significant steps taken to nominate a new president for the Commission. Ever since Ireland became a member of the EEC, two presidents stand out for their importance: Jaques Delors, who served from 1985 to 1995, and Ursula von der Leyen, who has held office since 2019. During various crises, she has implemented more instrumental changes than any other President since Delors stepped down. The primary concern amidst the growing speculation about her future, starting earnestly on Monday, is not the individuals involved but the policies at play. The existence of the EU Green Deal, an initiative pushing for decarbonisation, and an imperative framework for future decision-making are dependent on the ensuing decisions in this matter.
In the coming weeks, Ireland is set to select a new EU commissioner, a decision that will greatly influence Fianna Fáil, the party responsible for this appointment. Tánaiste Micheál Martin may accept the position, alternatively, he might pass it on to Finance Minister Michael McGrath, providing he chooses to stay in his current role. If McGrath is deemed too valuable to take on new responsibilities, another option could be former Attorney General Paul Gallagher, a two-time government member. This leaves only one key decision unresolved – the timing for the next general election. Buoyed by a newfound verve, Fine Gael is keen to proceed before October 27th when the clocks revert. This proposal, however, lacks the support of Fianna Fáil and the Greens. To avoid any hasty disbandment, a strategic plan is needed. It’s all up for grabs.