Ongoing behind-the-scenes discussions involving the United States, France, and Iran seem to have helped avert or delay an immediate counterattack by Iran and Hizbullah in response to Israel’s execution of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hizbullah tactician Fuad Shukr.
The diplomatic endeavour is geared towards diffusing the recent surge in hostilities and reestablishing the status quo prior to the killings that took place last month in Tehran and Beirut. The goal, as per Lebanese sources who shared with Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a Saudi-owned pan-Arab publication based in London, is to allow international diplomacy to effectuate the cessation of the Gaza conflict.
Last Wednesday saw an emergency meeting convened by Iran and Palestine, where a suggestion was made to forego any retaliation in return for the cessation of the war in Gaza. The gathering comprised foreign ministers of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Co-operation.
The group expressed outrage over the murder of Haniyeh but did not support retaliation. Ishaq Dar, the Pakistani foreign minister, advocated for the continuance of diplomacy. “Adhering to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s scheme for an expanded war is not beneficial,” he said.
In an interview with the American satellite network, CNN, Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi relayed the proposed compromise. Iran’s mission to the United Nations later noted its twin objectives of reaching a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, coupled with the retreat of the Israeli forces from the region, and delivering reprisal for the death of “martyr Haniyeh”.
Emphasising Iran’s right to self-defence, the statement clarified this intention is independent of the Gaza truce. Nevertheless, it expressed hope that their response would be executed in such a manner as to not undermine the potential ceasefire.
Covering this, Politico, an American news outlet, stated that Iran appears to have reassessed its stance and the US isn’t foreseeing any immediate assault on Israel. Following a call for resuming ceasefire talks spearheaded jointly by US President Joe Biden, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sidi, and Sheikh Tamim ibn Hamad al-Thani, the ruler of Qatar, on Thursday.
In their joint statement, the leaders noted that “The time has now come to release the hostages captured in the Hamas-led raid on Israel on October 7th, commence the ceasefire, and put into action this agreement, without delay or further excuses from any party”.
Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire agreement put forward by Biden on May 31st, whereas Netanyahu plans to delegate his crew to Cairo. This arrangement is advantageous to Tehran and Hizbullah, as aggressive strikes against Israel might provoke substantial Israeli counterattacks on Iran and Lebanon. Both these countries are currently grappling with civil unrest and an economic crisis.
France views itself as the guardian of Lebanon, while the US makes efforts to circumvent a full-fledged war with Iran and its associates in countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Unidentified high-ranking US officials have expressed to the Al Monitor website, based in Washington, that the agreement “offers an opportunity for all parties to desist and halt the downward spiraling towards an all-encompassing war”.