The trading firm, Probability Dynamics, that is financially backed by Dermot Desmond, experienced losses of €1.9 million in the year 2023, according to the firm’s latest account records. This loss exceeds the firm’s losses in the previous fiscal year which stood at €1.3 million, making their overall losses an accumulated €18.6 million. The ongoing financial support of its directors and related organisations is cited by the company’s leadership as critical to its survival, enabling it to meet financial liabilities as they come into existence.
Probability Dynamics, founded in 2006, uses a combination of applied mathematics, computational modelling and behavioural financial techniques to identify global financial market trends. It operates under the philosophy that financial markets are complex, evolving entities showing patterns that alternate between calm and turbulent, effective and less so. To navigate these fluctuations, the firm develops quantitative models that will allow them to make trades.
In terms of assets, the firm’s records indicate a fall from €803,856 in the previous year to €499,847 in 2023. Most of these assets – €496,002 exactly – are owed to the firm by trading debtors, a significant drop from €801,781 the previous year. The firm also reported a liability of €18.2 million, mainly originating from loans given by associated parties. This increased from the previous year’s figure of €16.4 million to €18.1 million.
The most significant percentage of these debts is owed to The Bottin Limited Partnership, a firm under the control of Mr Desmond. During 2023, The Bottin Limited Partnership extended a loan of €762,000 to Probability Dynamics, up from €270,000 in the previous year.
Alongside this, Probability Dynamics received €613,611 from another firm by the name of Hallworth Limited for intellectual property licence fees, a decrease from the previous year’s sum of €912,160. Hallworth Limited is understood to be a subsidiary of The Crosswell Limited Partnership which is based in Gibraltar. Both are connected to Dermot Desmond and past account records identify Probability Dynamics as a subsidiary of The Crosswell Limited Partnership.
The most recent account records reveal that in December 2023, all shares in Probability Dynamics held by IIU Nominees Limited were bought by The Crosswell Limited Partnership.