Following the significant reshaping of Austria’s political scene, the triumphant rightist populist Freedom Party (FPÖ), leading in the polls after Sunday’s general elections with a record-breaking 29.2 per cent, has set its sights on the ornate Hofburg in Vienna. Alexander Van der Bellen, Austria’s president, will deliver the formal mandate to kickstart coalition discussions from these erstwhile royal quarters, where the FPÖ’s jubilant leader Herbert Kickl envisions a future that ends with him taking the helm of the chancellery, fronting the government.
However, Kickl finds himself at odds with a strong opposition in the form of Van der Bellen and a noticeable lack of natural allies for a coalition. The president, despite maintaining a position of political neutrality, has strongly advocated for the preservation of Austria’s fundamental democratic principles in a particularly poignant election night speech. He emphasised the need for constructive dialogue, negotiation, and the pursuit of agreeable solutions and middle grounds.
As protests gathered momentum outside the old royal palace on Sunday, demonstrators amplified sentiments that Van der Bellen could not openly express, demanding “Nazis out” and rallying with “Never Kickl” chants.
Kickl’s post-election appearance before an exuberant crowd on Sunday night served as a platform to honour his populist mentor Jörg Haider, the previous record holder with 26 per cent votes in 1999, who lost his life in a car accident nearly a decade later. Taking a jibe at his adversary from the Hofburg, Kickl was determined to dispel any far-right extremist affiliations, asserting that the FPÖ represents nothing but the societal mainstream.
While viewpoints varied on whether Austria’s political centre was destroyed or simply repositioned toward the right that Sunday evening, it unequivocally disrupted the long-standing power dynamic between the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP), key players in post-war Austrian politics. The latter suffered a considerable blow, losing one third of its voters and landing second, lacking sufficient support to collaborate with the Greens to assert power.
An analysis of electoral shifts has brought to light the extent of the FPÖ’s triumph, gaining more than 400,000 of its 1.4 million votes from former ÖVP supporters disenchanted by economic stagnation and rising inflation, and previously dormant voters. The FPÖ’s promise of a “Secure Austria” involving stringent border controls and dramatic asylum reductions resonated with a broad spectrum of voters, their effective social media campaigning also playing a key role.
The Foresight/ISA study revealed the FPÖ’s popularity spanned various demographic groups: from those aged below 60, to the more informally educated, to voters from rural and metropolitan regions apart from major cities.
Notwithstanding a campaign centred on Herbert Kickl, a mere two per cent of respondents conveyed to ISA researchers that the FPÖ leader was their rationale for choosing the party. This may influence any coalition discussions that may either cut out the FPÖ completely or place them in a ruling partnership with the ÖVP, albeit sans its leader.
Karl Nehammer, the departing chancellor and leader of the ÖVP, confirmed on Sunday his party’s disinclination to cooperate with Kickl, harking back to a previously testing shared governance period. Meanwhile, on Monday, FPÖ officials discounted this potential combination, accepting instead the possibility of “multiple options” ensuing in post-election coalition negotiations.
Andreas Mölzer, a senior figure within the FPÖ criticises the opposition’s demand for the leading party’s frontrunner to step aside. The criticism is pointed at Nehammer, whose party experienced a 12 per cent drop in support, questioning the legitimacy of his voter mandate.