The tallying process for the local and European elections is in full swing, some having been counted overnight. What are the key things to anticipate in the next few hours?
Despite the local election results continuing to trickle in all day – with only a third of the seats occupied so far – the spotlight for many will shift to the European elections, where final tallies larger than those recorded yesterday will be completed.
However, the actual counting process is prolonged. In 2019, only Dublin was able to announce a first count by Sunday evening. Additionally, the length of the ballot papers has increased compared to five years ago, making them more time-intensive.
Initial indications imply that the influence of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in local counts will be mirrored in the European results. Although there can be discrepancies in the way people vote in these two races, the overall portrait is not expected to alter drastically. This suggests that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil should secure an MEP in each of the three Euro constituencies – and possibly a second seat in either the five-seater constituencies of Ireland South and Midlands-North-West.
Local and European election results see Fine Gael on the edge of being the largest party, Sinn Féin expressing disappointment, and Independents making some gains. An innovative online tool allows voters to find out which parties align with their views.
Sinn Féin faces a potential risk; running two contenders in each constituency could lead to an uneven voting distribution, thereby leaving them seatless. In the capital, for example, the local election vote for the party is currently at about 11%, which if split between two candidates in the European election, could jeopardise their chance of gaining a seat.
While it would be somewhat unusual for Sinn Féin to fail to secure any seats in the European Parliament (given they entered the election with one), the party, its members, and supporters wait anxiously to see how the counts unfold. The most pressing question for Sinn Féin is: just how bad might it be? Party leader, Mary Lou McDonald, faces the challenge of addressing her disheartened party.
Election Daily notes the emerging victors and vanquished.
There are a few noteworthy aspects in the local election results. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are locked in a fierce competition to become the predominant party, with Fine Gael slightly ahead at the moment. However, the sizeable group of current officeholders under Fianna Fáil could bridge this gap. The difference, regardless, will be nominal.
Polling around 22-23 per cent each party is maintaining their general election standing. Their fellow coalition party, the Green Party, has unquestionably lost some support; notably, it remains resilient in Dublin’s local scene. If this pattern persists during the count, the three alliance parties could cumulatively approach their previously achieved 50 per cent from the general election results. This could potentially signal an extraordinary outcome.
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The specifics of the surge of independent winners across the nation will also be clearer today. Bear in mind that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, along with the Greens, will surrender council positions. So, the question is, who is set to gain them? Attention will primarily be directed towards candidates from the fringe right-wing parties, with a small number likely to be key players in the later counts.
The comprehensive local results will clarify the potency – or lack thereof- of Ireland’s far-right political factions. This is equally applicable to the performance of the many extreme right-wing contenders in the European races.