Members of the Dáil are set to reconvene at Leinster House this Wednesday, with anticipation building over the potential conclusion of the 33rd Dáil in the coming weeks. The political landscape is already vastly competitive as parties and individual politicians gear up for impending elections, thereby heightening the stakes and stress levels.
Key themes and debates are beginning to shape the political stage. Currently commanding the discussions is the imminent budget. With a substantial amount to allocate, the Government is giving hints about future distribution of funds. However, this has stirred a ruthless internal contest among the three governmental parties, each scrambling to take credit for certain budgetary components. Such a tug-of-war stands to benefit them by overshadowing opposition, but it simultaneously risks straining the already tense intra-coalition atmosphere. Drawing closer is a two-week period of intensive intra-government discussion.
Meanwhile, notable casualties included eight victims and nearly 2,750 injuries in Lebanon due to exploding pagers. Furthermore, a Dublin drug gang dubbed ‘The Family’ was busted following an encrypted platform infiltration. Michael McGrath’s recent role in Europe mirrors Ireland’s dwindling reputation. In a positive light, Irish Rugby player Bundee Aki confirmed Irish citizenship and expressed a fond attitude towards the country.
In parallel, Sinn Féin is striving to reaffirm its stance within the political discourse, particularly after a challenging year indicated by declining poll support. They appear to be resurrecting a ‘back to basics’ strategy that primarily leverages housing issues and a left-wing populist critique of the current government. The efficacy of this approach in the impending pre-election phase remains uncertain.
Upon the presentation of the budget on October 1st in the Dáil, the Government will propose the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill, establishing the basis for many budgetary measures. The timeframe of these actions could reveal the probable 2024 election; ordinarily, the Finance Bill gets Cabinet approval a few weeks post-budget. However, sources suggest the Bill could reach the Cabinet and Dáil as early as the following week.
With upcoming significant bills in the Dáil, Darragh O’Brien, the Housing Minister has indicated to fellow Cabinet members that the massive planning bill will be approved by mid-October. This is anticipated to expedite the planning process, enabling the construction of a greater number of houses, a move the government views as crucial. It is probable that the parliamentary guillotine – a resolution which terminates the debate, thereby finalising the bill if endorsed – will come in to play.
The government also has plans to present the Defamation Bill to the Dáil. While it may not reach completion, the second stage debate will allow government TDs and ministers to remind themselves of the vast number of Sinn Féin TDs who have filed defamation lawsuits against the media, not excluding Mary Lou McDonald who is suing RTÉ.
The hate crime bill is also expected to make the “must-do” list, most likely in a significantly modified version.
However, legislative tasks are not the prime concern for most people.
Regardless of whether the election is in November or early next year, politicians across all party lines are primarily concentrating on their districts and the intense race for votes currently unfolding. One politician frankly admitted at his think-in that he’d rather be at home seeking votes.
In contrast to US presidential elections, which are determined by a small group of states, or the UK where many Westminster seats are safely captured by a particular party, Irish elections are fiercely fought in every constituency, often being decided by the smallest of vote margins. Politicians are well aware that each door they knock on boosts their probability of triumph – voters generally appreciate being personally asked for their vote. This reality is set to cast a shadow over politics in the imminent term.