As the Dáil reconvenes post-summer recess, there lingers a sense of melancholy amongst TDs and Senators traipsing into Leinster House. This melancholy is perhaps elevated by the summer we’ve endured and the current burst of golden sunshine outside. Being confined within the bustling Dáil chamber alongside over 160 others seems less appealing than ever for many of them.
This is deemed to be the final gathering of the Dáil before the imminent elections. Speculation is rife, with the vote anticipated to take place in the next several weeks, should it be set for November. In the event of a 2025 election, it’s unlikely that the Dáil will accumulate post-Christmas, with an expectation that Simon Harris would announce a new year election.
The timing of the elections has been a seemingly endless topic of discussion. Each Government Minister and leader is met daily with the same query. All three leaders have voiced their intention for the Government to serve a full term, with Micheál Martin even hinting at a February timeline during a Monday briefing. Despite this, he furthered the ambiguity by stating there’s minimal difference between November and February the following day.
The majority of backbench TDs from the two primary Government parties lean towards a November election. It reduces Sinn Féin’s recovery period following the lacklustre election performance in June and is anticipated to follow one of the largest budget dispersals in the State’s history. Moreover, both the relatively mild weather and ample daylight are viewed as favourable conditions.
The swirling uncertainty around the election timing has prompted Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl to share his thoughts. As reported by Cormac McQuinn, he has warned that the incessant conjectures of a November election risk undermining the Oireachtas’ credibility. But what then of February?
The ability to control varying elements can often dwindle after the Yuletide period. Harsh weather conditions combined with elongated waiting periods at hospitals typically bode ill for a departing government. Moreover, the early stages of the New Year are not usually people’s preferred season. Following the festive period, days become darker, finances tighter, and Christmas is but a memory.
In the history of general elections, it’s not unusual to see them held in February. The elections of 2011, 2016 and 2020 serve as prime examples of this trend. A February election could potentially provide more time for the ruling parties to add to their list of accomplishments, as well as for Fine Gael candidates who are yet to establish themselves to increase their visibility.
In any event, this would mark the final term of the current Dáil. Confirmation of no plans for holding by-elections to fill the four vacancies created by the election of Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Féin), Michael McNamara (Independent), Aodhan Ó Ríordáin (Labour) and Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil) to the European Parliament, was given by Micheál Martin at a recent Fianna Fáil meeting.
A strong indication that elections might be held in November can be inferred from the accelerated pace at which parties are selecting their candidates, expecting to confirm their line-ups by month’s end.
Before the elections can take place, certain key legislations need the Government’s attention, such as the planning, gambling and justice bills, in addition to progressing the mental health and defamation laws in the Dáil. Both are significant proposals of law and a flurry of rapid decision-making can be anticipated to ensure their passage in time for a possible November election, potentially resulting in a series of rushed votes.
As for the upcoming week in the Dáil, topics likely to come under discussion include Apple’s windfall profit, the escalating Middle-Eastern crisis and Israel’s bold attack resulting in thousand of pagers held by Hizbullah being triggered all at once. Thorough debates on polarising election issues like housing, homelessness, immigration, defence, childcare and healthcare are expected.
The recent intriguing development has been Michael McGrath’s assignment as the EU commissioner for justice, a role not usually linked to the politician from Cork, according to Irish political pundits. Despite scepticism from Maynooth’s European Studies professor, John O’Brennan, about the potency of the role, the majority believe that it’s a victory for McGrath.
As reported by Jack Power, live from Brussels, McGrath’s role is thought to hover around the middle in terms of rank. He noted that while larger nations such as France, Italy, Spain, and Poland managed to secure the high-tier portfolios, Ireland got a mid-level assignment focusing on justice and maintaining Europe’s law and order.
There’s also a minor issue of a bicycle shed whose cost of €335,000 parallels an average rural house’s price.
Morning Reads
Prior to today’s Oireachtas health committee meet, we discuss the HSE’s significant dependence on outside management consultants in the past few years.
A throwback to the time when Michael McDowell spoke about the ‘pull factors’ for immigration, a term previously used frequently by a Fianna Fáil-led government more than two decades ago.
Are there any takers for the final round of brainstorming sessions? A report comes from Jack Horgan-Jones on the Social Democrats meet in Dublin, where Holly Cairns expressed a readiness to participate in the government, but with certain terms and conditions. She mentioned that the goal isn’t just to join the government for the sake of it.
After an interference from Minister for Higher Education Patrick O’Donovan, a proposed shelter for asylum applicants in Limerick is on hold, reports Jack Horgan-Jones.
Jack Power demystifies the role of EU’s justice commissioner.
There’s a mention from Fintan O’Toole about Ireland possibly being unaware of the ongoing abuses.
Eoin Drea, an academic, suggests that the Justice portfolio was the least preferred and its allocation to Michael McGrath is indicative of Ireland’s depreciating impact in Europe.
Playbook
Dáil
14:01: Leaders’ Questions
14:35: Policy or Legislation Order and Questions
15:11: Taoiseach’s Questions. Specific enquiries regarding the Department of An Taoiseach.
15:56: Statements on the CJEU Judgment in the Apple State aid case.
The Mental Health Bill of 2024 entered its second stage at 18:23. At 20:09, a private business movement concerning childcare was introduced by Sinn Féin. Topical issues arose at 22:11, followed by the adjournment of Dáil at 22:59.
On the committee front, the Enterprise Committee reviewed the National Minimum Wage (Equal Pay for Young Workers) Bill, 2022 at 09:30 thoroughly. The Health Committee at 10:00 discussed the progress made by the Productivity and Savings Taskforce, with insight from officials from the Department of Health and the Health Service Executive (HSE).
At 13:30, discussions about aviation trends, air traffic control and drone activity were held between the Transport and Communications Committee and Eurocontrol. Simultaneously, the Finance and Public Expenditure Committee had a pre-legislative review of the general IBRC Special Liquidation and Dissolution of Nama Bill with Department of Finance officials.
Following that, the Budgetary Oversight Committee at 15:30 commenced its engagement regarding the 2025 budget, with representatives from various bodies such as the Central Bank, the Economic and Social Research Institute, The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, and Neven Economic Research Institute.
At 17:30, the Disability Matters Committee deliberated on matching disability funding with UNCRPD guidelines. The day was rounded up at 18:30 by the Budgetary Oversight Committee’s resumed discussion on the 2025 budget. In attendance were Jack Chambers, Minister for Finance, and Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform.