This Thursday, the people of England will cast their votes in pivotal local elections that could shape the destiny of the Tory party and its prime minister, Rishi Sunak. More than 2,600 available council seats in 107 councils across the nation, as well as 11 mayoral positions, are at stake. Furthermore, a key Westminster byelection will unfold in Blackpool, as the Labour party aims to maintain their run of defeating Tory majorities ahead of the expected general elections later in 2021.
Alongside these political polls, voters in England and Wales will be selecting police commissioners across 37 divisions. However, voting will not occur in Scotland or Northern Ireland. The council elections extend to numerous regions of the so-called Red Wall in the north and midlands, representing working-class territories. These areas will be monitored for indications of voter inclination meticulously.
With the Tory party bracing themselves for possible losses exceeding half of their 919 seats, the suspicion is increasing that this could be their poorest outcome in a set of local elections if they surrender more than 480 seats, as some analysts forecast. On the other hand, Labour is focussing on defending its 928 seats while expecting to achieve considerable gains. The Liberal Democrats, with their current hold of 415 seats, are hopeful of gains, particularly at Tory’s expense, in the southwest regions where they have identified several target seats for the general election.
While a significant loss is anticipated for the Tories, a historical defeat could spark a rebellion among Tory sceptics aiming to see Sunak replaced. However, it is considered doubtful in Westminster that they could gather enough dissident votes to unseat the prime minister via a vote of confidence. If Tory candidates succumb to a landslide loss in the mayoral elections – including significant city areas like London, Manchester, Birmingham’s West Midlands, and Middlesbrough’s Tees Valley – Mr Sunak’s situation could become gravely threatening.
Although Labour’s London Mayor Sadiq Khan seems slated to overcome his Conservative adversary Susan Hall, the results from West Midlands and Tees Valley will be considered vital to Sunak’s effort to retain control over his party.
The contested mayoral positions are currently occupied by Tory representatives – Andy Street in West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley. A potential loss of these two seats could spell disaster for Mr Sunak. Importantly, if the Labour party triumphs in the Tees Valley, it could provide a major clue into the voting attitudes in the pivotal Red Wall for the upcoming general election. Although there are predictions that Mr Houchen may retain his position.
Furthermore, a byelection is scheduled in Blackpool South to find a replacement for Scott Benton, following his suspension from the Tory party last year due to a concealed lobbying scandal. Although his majority was narrow, the Labour party are confident of securing a victory. However, political analysts in Westminster are keenly observing the performance of the rising right-wing party, Reform UK.
Reform UK, which counts Nigel Farage among its founders, is predicted to siphon votes from the Tories in multiple critical seats during the general election.
National polls currently place Labour around 20 percentage points ahead of the Tories, fuelling speculation of a possible change in governance following the subsequent general election.