The promotional materials for ‘The Conservative Effect, 2010-2024: 14 Wasted Years?’ fittingly incorporate a form of review commonly recognised by the alumni of UK public schools, many of whom have served in those positions over this time period.
A concluding critique of ‘Whitehall College’, embellished with the motto ‘Pauci Enim Non Multi’ – ‘For the Few, Not the Many’ – examines the notable figures since 2010, such as David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Elizabeth Truss, and Rishi Sunak.
Under ‘Verdict’, it states, ‘Multo plures sunt qui vincere sciunt quam qui recte uti victoria’, or ‘There are more who have the skill to win than who competently utilise a victory.’ As an epitaph for political careers, this motto holds notable weight.
The analysis of Laurence Rees and Prof Brendan O’Rourke, among others, scrutinises the performances of the leaderships that have been allegedly in control of 10 Downing Street since 2010. Most of the assessments are exceptionally harsh, with only a handful of exceptions.
Despite opposition, historian Corinne Fowler works diligently to shift perspectives on Britain’s historical involvement with slavery.
Spontaneous policy adjustments, often starkly contradictory, along with a rotation of politicians securing and then vacating cabinet posts, have completely eroded the expectation of a stable political environment in the UK.
These reviews are part of an ongoing series by historian Anthony Seldon, tracing political impacts independently from party bias or daily public discourse since the time of Margaret Thatcher.
In setting the scene, acclaimed pollster and journalist Peter Kellner questions if achievements or failures can be accurately appraised by examining the 14-year Conservative reign from 1951 to 1964 through a more extended historical perspective. Can the party, for instance, be applauded for reflecting popular opinion by rejecting modifications to abortion and homosexuality, or criticized for holding views that have not withstood historical judgement?
Regardless of such considerations, the overall assessment of the Conservatives’ performance post-2010 paints a starkly negative picture. While it acknowledges that the early-year struggles were precipitated by a global financial crisis not of their making, the party didn’t foresee or sufficiently prepare for it.
David Cameron was successful in the 2010 elections as he was able to persuade English voters that he was a reliable custodian of their beloved National Health Service (NHS), characterised by Nigel Lawson as the closest thing to a national faith for the English.
At that time, the NHS was faring well. The count of people awaiting treatment stood at 2.5 million, but those on standby for more than a quarter of the year had dipped from 700,000 to a mere 7,000. Hardly anyone was left hanging for over half a year.
Such was the profound significance of the NHS to the British psyche, film-maker Danny Boyle centred it in his depiction of the 2012 London Olympics, featuring children bounding on hospital beds encircled by prancing nurses, as described by Rachel Sylvester.
However, by 2023, the NHS had made history for all the wrong reasons. The roster for elective surgeries had tripled, climbing to 7.8 million and projected to surpass eight million by year’s end, regardless of the outcome of the July 4th elections. To make matters worse, one in every ten hospital beds is occupied by a patient unable to be discharged due to the severe social care predicament in England.
All health systems around the globe have faced hurdles in the past ten years, primarily due to ageing populations which are a common occurrence in the western world. In England and Wales, there are currently 11 million residents aged over 65, including half a million aged 90 or above.
As Age UK reports, nearly 1.6 million senior citizens lack daily essential aids; 2.6 million over-50s have unfulfilled care needs; and there was an alarming 52% spike in social care staff vacancies, amounting to 165,000 in England last year.
Yet, a considerable portion of the country’s health crisis is politically-induced – arising from policy-making that is ideologically, not practically, driven, particularly ceaseless reforms that were often scrapped or did not live up to expectations, coupled with expenditure constraints.
However, some interventions do yield results. In 2018, a hefty tax was imposed on the sugary drinks industry, resulting in a reduction of sugar consumption from 135,500 tonnes to 87,600 tonnes within a span of four years. Unfortunately, more could have been achieved.
The prevailing political environment, which constantly grumbled over an encroaching “nanny state”, hindered many measures that potentially could have promoted healthier lifestyles in a populace that frequently indulges in unhealthy eating habits and doesn’t exercise enough.
Political dogma, later on, proved to be a major obstacle to further efforts. The inability of Boris Johnson, who is often criticized for his shortcomings, to enact restrictions on television advertisements for junk food before 9pm and to terminate “buy one get one free” deals for unhealthy items, was largely due to opposition from his own team.
The economic crash paved the way for David Cameron by tarnishing Labour’s credibility in economic matters, despite the attempts by Gordon Brown, the then Labour Prime Minister, to rescue the global financial system.
In 2011, the toll of joblessness rose to 2.7 million. Consequently, household wealth across the United Kingdom experienced a significant decline of nearly £1 trillion between 2008 and 2009, just before the Conservatives replaced Labour in power, leaving lasting economic scars.
Still, as Tom Egerton argues, David Cameron and George Osborne made crucial errors by implementing austerity measures post-2010. Despite the Conservatives exploiting Labour’s Liam Byrne’s casual remark “there’s no money left” to his successor, David Laws from the Liberal Democrats, the reality was less dire.
The national debt was 65% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and at its peak, the deficit was 10%, yet the severity of the situation was somewhat alleviated by unprecedentedly low-interest rates.
According to Egerton, the missteps made during this period painted a bleak picture for the next decade, marked by “rising inequality, an impaired pound, plummeting trust in the elites, slow economic growth and stagnation of wages”.
The extent of the governmental budget cuts from 2010 until the 2020 Covid crisis, pointed out by Paul Johnson, Carl Emmerson and Nick Redpath, is astonishing – “the greatest and most long-lasting budget cuts” since 1945 at least. Even though the deficit had declined by 2018, pre- Covid-19 pandemic, the remedial strategies were harsher and more prolonged than initially intended.
The state of economic progression in the United Kingdom since 2010, which has regularly delivered underperformance since WWII, has been alarmingly poor. Both national income and productivity per person have barely shown any progress, causing negative impacts on wages and the standard of living– effects that largely shed light on the current sentiment within the UK.
Since 2010, there has been no substantial increase in salaries, with weekly earnings merely increasing nominally from £450 to £650. The authors claim this to be the longest duration lacking growth in real wages since the time of the Napoleonic Wars.
The UK’s productivity per hour underperforms by 13% and 8% compared to Germany and France, respectively. Equally concerning is that the median household income, being the average between the wealthiest and the most deprived, is 22% less than Germany.
The UK’s historically underfunded public and influential private capital investment is the root cause of many socio-economic issues the country currently faces. This view is echoed by key figures such as Nick MacPherson, the ex-permanent treasury secretary, who argues that the UK should have borrowed more during periods of extremely low-interest rates.
Authors Michael Marmot and Clare Bambra soberingly critique: “Britain has become an increasingly challenging place for the financially disadvantaged, a trend that has escalated over the past 14 years”.
The self-imposed challenge that dominates all aspects, politically, economically, and socially — Brexit — has brought a significant amount of harm with no evident advantage.
Following the Brexit vote, capital expenditure experienced a drastic fall and had only just returned to its 2016 status by 2023 – a situation unique amongst significant global economies.
The frequent switches in positions during Brexit negotiations, including whether to stay in the single market or to generate high-profile threats of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, added a tariff on trade that negatively impacted investments. Furthermore, the increasing numbers of immigrants from non-EU countries has failed to address the issue of immigration that played a crucial role in triggering Brexit.
Marmot and Bambra’s verdict on inequality is unequivocally bleak, stating: “Britain’s treatment of the impoverished has progressively worsened over the past 14 years.”
The average income for UK households in 2022 stood at £35,000 before taxes and benefits, rising to £38,100 post deductions. Yet, the top fifth of the socioeconomic echelon garnered a £117,500 average income—significantly higher than the lowest fifth who survived on mere £8,200. In spite of the promises of greater equality and the phenomenon of traditionally Labour-centric “Red Wall” constituencies swinging Conservative due to Boris Johnson’s charisma in 2019, the fact remains that social disparities have aggravated substantially.
Grasp the ramifications: declining health conditions of the less fortunate; reduced life spans; increased illness rates; premature loss of numerous family members. This scenario is an unparalleled disaster. This insight merits the attention of all politics enthusiasts and more importantly warrants the time of the man slated to inhabit 10 Downing Street next: the Labour Party’s Keir Starmer. This account serves as a harsh critique of a detrimental political epoch that has inflicted severe harm while providing minuscule benefits.
Books for additional perusal include: “How They Broke Britain” by James O’Brien (2023) which is an aggressive denouncement of the hidden powers-that-be who have monopolised UK politics, convincing people to repeatedly vote against their self-interests.
“How Westminster Works … and Why It Doesn’t” by Ian Dunt (2023) offers an in-depth exploration into the complexities of UK political machinery. It interrogates why its systems succeed or fail to deliver, and why the public struggles to perceive who holds the reins of power, and the reasoning behind it.
For a comprehensive overview, consider “Inside Story: Politics, Intrigue and Treachery from Thatcher to Brexit” by Philip Webster (2016). Granted a front-row view of history as a respected reporter lodged in the House of Commons press gallery, Webster narrates his experiences with detail, acumen and compassion.