The narrative of the week
The fiscal plan took centre stage this week, unavoidably so considering the vast sums involved. The government predictably attracted criticism for certain strategies, notably the indeterminate and lavish spending in some areas (provoking apprehension internally, as we note today). Nonetheless, it’d be a surprise if these criticisms had much of a lasting effect – as nights darken and chill, the public looks to the state for aid. Short-term politics of this scenario are rather uncomplicated, regardless of counterarguments from rival parties. The true challenge lies in the future – specifically for whichever government is tasked with decreasing the spending spree deployed to alleviate household living expenses.
This budget will likely fade into the preface, with the spotlight now shifting steadily towards the upcoming general elections – along with the relentless analysing of its potential schedule. Stay tuned for more updates.
Friction within the ranks
What can be described as a slow-burn disagreement rather than an outright conflict, the escalating tension among coalition leaders is evident. Micheál Martin cautioned last night at a dinner gathering in Dublin Chamber that constituents must be convinced that the coalition is prioritising citizens over political games, interpreted as another veiled criticism at his coalition allies – a dispute that seems to also be taking place behind closed doors.
Additionally, rumours suggest that Roderic O’Gorman, Green Party leader, held his ground in budget talks regarding his proposed baby boost, despite reservations voiced by ministers about its arbitrary nature. The Greens were notably active this budgeting season, evidently believing that to increase their election success, they must embrace policies with wider appeal beyond their eco-centric foundation.
Will we see a general election announcement from Simon Harris on the Dublin Airport runway next week?
Signs of coalition disunity become apparent as election dates loom – just not during the rugby matches, please.
Behind the scenes of the budget proposal: the story of the multibillion giveaway agreement, sealed over cups of tea, coffee, and custard cream biscuits.
Simon Harris seems determined to avoid repeating the same error as Leo Varadkar.
Each one of these factors isn’t a risk to the coalition on its own, but the forthcoming election is shining a spotlight on evident fractures in the government’s front. Some of these splits are deliberately emphasised for public view. However, the final stages of any governmental tenure always involve a precarious juggling act under stress.
The Banana Peel
The date chosen for the general election becomes a focal point, without fail. Regardless of the final decision, conjecture will abound on how it could potentially boomerang due to events like school holidays or rugby matches amongst many unpredictable elements related to the time frame.
Victors and Vanquished
Victors: Families with children who pay taxes are set to receive an early festive bonus from the government. Not to forget the newborns of the festive period.
Vanquished: The dining industry lobby, who were unsuccessful in their vigorous push for a reinstatement of the lower 9 per cent VAT rate – despite Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke’s efforts, this was seemingly a non-starter.
The In-Depth Article
The 2025 budget decisions and their intricacies – underpinned by biscuits and youthful fervour.
We have also included a tribute to Mary O’Rourke, a stalwart of Fianna Fáil, known for her profound political resilience.
An insightful piece by Jennifer Bray will feature in Saturday’s paper, exploring the actual preparedness of the parties for the upcoming general election. The article will also delve into some speculative beliefs regarding its timeline.
Sound Advice
A detailed analysis of Tuesday’s budget announcement was provided on Wednesday by our ever-enthusiastic team.
Depending on when you access this newsletter, you may also get access to our podcast summarising the week’s updates. You lucky readers!
Here’s an insight from Pat Leahy on why Fine Gael finds the November 8th date inconvenient for the election.
Why the eighth of November? Because that’s when Ireland takes on the All Blacks in rugby, and everyone will be at Lansdowne Road to watch the match. – Pat Leahy.