Many journalists and political enthusiasts currently participating in the continuous, three-day count remarked that their situation resembles the plot of the iconic 1970’s film “They Shoot Horses Don’t They”, featuring Jane Fonda. In the aforementioned movie, characters compete in a seemingly endless dancing marathon during America’s Great Depression period.
Happily, there is finally a glimmer of hope appearing. We are drawing close to concluding the count for the last few of the 949 seats across all county and city councils nationally. The initial rounds of counting for all three European Parliament constituencies have been completed.
There have been significant events in the course of elections thus far, such as Kelly achieving MEP status after a significant win in Ireland South, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil fiercely contending for leadership in the local elections.
John Moran seems to be securing a clear lead in the mayoral election in Limerick. His opponents appear unable to surpass his popularity in this race to be the inaugural executive mayor.
A look at the overall election has shown favourable results for the two main Government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, at local as well as European level.
It has turned out to be devastating for Sinn Féin, with a noticeable decline in the party’s performance just months after it previously enjoyed heights in the opinion polls for a nearly four-year stretch.
In contrast, the smaller left-wing parties, namely Labour and the Social Democrats, have shown impressive results.
However, the tide did not favour the Green party, which saw a loss of over half of its council seats with a challenging situation in Europe as well. Despite this setback, the party had some remarkable victories to soothe the loss.
Independents have successfully made their mark at both local and European level. Five councillors favouring anti-immigration right-wing ideologies have been elected from Dublin. Against this, at least 25 newly elected councillors hail from diverse ethnic backgrounds.
John Moran seems to be in an unbeatable position with 18,000 first-choice votes in Limerick’s mayoral election tally, more than 5,000 votes ahead of his closest competitor, Helen O’Donnell.
Sean Kelly, representing Fine Gael, has been successfully elected as the first MEP in the Ireland South constituency following an exceptional performance. His party, Fine Gael, is forecasted to secure four out of the fourteen seats available, with both Maria Walsh and Nina Carberry predicted to inevitably secure two seats in the Midlands North West (MWN).
Barry Cowen from Fianna Fáil is expected to be the first elected MEP from his party in MWN in a decade. In addition, Fianna Fáil has a good chance of securing a seat in every constituency. Cynthia Ní Mhurchú has demonstrated immense promise in the polls and could potentially win a second seat for Fianna Fáil in the Ireland South constituency, joining colleague Billy Kelleher. In Dublin, Barry Andrews has upstaged his competitors by topping the poll.
Sinn Féin’s strongest stronghold is MWN, yet it has potential to lose the MEP seat there. Its candidates, Michelle Gildernew and Chris MacManus, have managed to accumulate just over 70,000 votes in total, posing little threat to other parties in terms of winning a seat. The party is also battling for its existence in the remaining two constituities.
While Green MEPs are under threat of losing their seats, a definitive outcome cannot be predicted. Ciarán Cuffe has a potential chance of retaining his seat if he remains ahead of Aodhán Ó Riordáin.
The situation in MNW appears rather predictable. Barry Cowen from FF, Luke Ming Flanagan, an independent candidate, and Fine Gael’s Nina Carberry and Maria Walsh have each received over 70,000 votes, placing them 15,000 ahead of their closest rival, Ciaran Mullooly, who garnered 57,000 votes. This order will likely be maintained, even though it will require more than 20 counts for official confirmation.
In Ireland South, Ní Mhurchú and independent candidate, Michael McNamara, stand a fair chance to lead over their competitors Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party and independent candidate, Mick Wallace. Each of the candidates has polled between 46,000 and 56,000 votes.
Interestingly, Dublin saw a rapid progression through the counts before adjourning after the 13th count.
Of the initial 23 individuals vying for the four contested seats, only ten hopefuls remain. Thus far none are near the necessary benchmark of 75,000 votes. Yet, it remains evident that Barry Andrews and Regina Doherty are assuredly ahead in the count.
One candidate seeing a significant increase in the early vote tally is Niall Boylan. Given some of the hopefuls come from right-wing, anti-immigration factions, this doesn’t cause great surprise. Boylan’s vote count has escalated by nearly 10,000 from an initial 30,637 to 39,615, placing him third and surpassing Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan (37,847).
Unfortunately, Sinn Féin’s Daithí Doolan (11,822) has been ousted. With the recommencing of the recount in the morning, the hope is that his support will carry Lynn Boylan comfortably above the 40,000 threshold.
Niall Boylan may also gain additional votes from Aontú’s Aisling Considine’s transfers, currently sitting just shy of 14,000 votes.
Following Considine are candidates representing the left politically. Sinéad Gibney from the Social Democrats (17,679) is predicted to pass most of her votes onto Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (32,253) and incumbent MEP Ciarán Cuffe of the Greens (33,737). However, should Bríd Smith (24,284) be the next to bow out, her votes could largely swing to Clare Daly (29,759).
In this close-running competition, multiple outcomes could still transpire.
In regards to local elections, the process is almost complete, with 929 of 949 seats decided upon. Some seats are yet to be filled, awaiting recounts and the resolving of disputes; however, these should be finalized by tomorrow.
Highlights include the neck and neck competition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, each striving to emerge as the dominant party in local government. Despite Fine Gael’s earlier lead, a late rally from its Coalition ally placed Fianna Fáil with the current advantage by a single seat.
The director of local elections for Fianna Fáil, Jack Chambers, expressed increasing confidence in a statement issued tonight that Fianna Fáil would maintain its standing as the largest party within local government once the voting and democratic process is completed.
Chamber stated that Fianna Fáil is in a very strong standing as the last seats are being assigned. Sinn Féin has secured a total of 100 seats, marking an improvement from 2019’s election, which was not in their favour. Labour has managed to maintain its position close to its 2019 count, with 56 seats currently compared to 57 previously.
Remarkably, Social Democrats have emerged as the significant victors of this election, with 35 seats, nearly twice its previous score in 2019. About five councillors with explicit right-wing affiliations and several others who based their campaigns on immigration concerns, although there wasn’t any notable triumph from right-wing parties or groups.
Fine Gael had a tremendous turnaround, while Sinn Féin had a disappointing performance.
The Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald, while conversing with the media at the RDS, acknowledged a variety of thoughts within the party regarding its areas of improvement. This includes issues like organisational challenges and the way the party’s message was conveyed in some instances.
McDonald agreed that the party must clarify its policy positions, reiterating that its stance on immigration remains unchanged. She further stated, “We are a party that is entirely against racism. We champion human rights, dignity and respect for everyone. We advocate for an effective system characterised by fair and swift decision-making.”
Cabinet meetings in the Dáil are expected to continue as usual, despite the vote counting process still being underway.
Eamon Ryan, the head of the Green Party, is scheduled to present three memos to the Cabinet, one of which proposes an SEAI grant for home retrofitting aimed at owners of properties with faulty concrete blocks. This comes at a significant time, given that the issue resulted in four people being voted onto Donegal County Council.
The Tánaiste is also set to deliver memos to the Cabinet pertaining to Defence, including a proposed extension of the Irish army’s mission in Kosovo. The memos also discuss participation in two Pesco endeavours, the first focusing on a logistics hub in Europe and the second on critical seabed infrastructure.
Dáil Éireann’s schedule includes Leaders’ Questions at 14:00 and the Planning and Development Bill 2023 – Report and Final Stages at 15:05. Special Education will be the focus of Sinn Féin’s Private Members’ Business at 19:20, followed by a Parliamentary Question directed at Minister for Social Protection, Heather Humphreys at 21:22. The adjournment is scheduled for 23:40.
In Seanad Éireann, the Control of Dogs (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2024 – Second Stage will be discussed at 15:15 as part of their Private Members’ Business. This comes as a crucial issue, given the recent deadly dog attack in Limerick.
The Committees’ activities include an 11:00 briefing on Climate Action and Sustainable Development Education in Primary and Post Primary Schools, with officials from the Department of Education and the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment. Another key session at 15:15 involves Foreign Affairs’ engagement with Dóchas to consider their pre-budget submission.