A story from my adolescence: a south Dublin matron, seeking to gauge the social profile of this unfamiliar lad, asked me upon hearing my name, “Do you belong to the McWilliams, the legal clan?” When I confirmed I didn’t, I sensed her let down as my social status nosedived in the mental scoreboard she was maintaining. The notions of class, status, and position were regularly employed in matrons’ compatibility evaluations in the 80s. Their practice was a reality while it left me amused.
Ireland, after its independence leading into the 1970s, witnessed hardly any social movement as its economy staggered. The 1980s witnessed a turnaround and Ireland began experiencing speedy social mobility. The kids born during 1979, around the period of John Paul’s visit, were the pioneers of this widely witnessed social uprising. An ESRI study highlights a noticeable boost in absolute social mobility, with many individuals elevating to higher social ranks, likely as a byproduct of the rising professional and managerial roles in the economy.
This social wave was felt nationwide. You might label this prevalent middle-class shift among the population as the “Irish Dream”. It bears a strong resemblance to the American Dream of the 1950s and 1960s wherein the offspring were destined to achieve a better lifestyle than their parents. This Boomer generation is often criticised by the struggling Millennials and Generation X as US earnings have hit a stagnation point.
To illustrate, up to 90% of the American Boomers born around 1940 exceeded their parents’ earnings when they were 30. This percentage drastically dropped to 50% for individuals born in 1980, who are currently around 40. The prevalent resentment, societal conflicts and political disarray in US circles can be attributed to this stagnating social progression.
Ireland, being a late bloomer in economic progression, had its version of the Irish Dream during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Even amidst economic downfalls, this progressive social mobility persisted until quite recently.
Based on the latest data from the United States, Chief Executives do not tend to hail from affluent origins, which indicates meritocracy remains present in US businesses. The question of whether the next generation is destined to experience a downturn from the economic standing of their parents is a timely subject of debate. It echoes the idea of following the socio-economic patterns of America several decades behind, an occurrence that could potentially shift the dynamics of our society extensively.
In a society with limited social mobility, elements like the income bracket of parents and the professional paths chosen by children begin to carry heavier weight in their societal ranking. Individual choices and their consequences become more significant when the overall progression falters, and we may find ourselves experiencing a reality similar to the 1980s, where social hierarchy was pronounced.
Our understanding of these trends is enriched by the wealth of sociological data accumulated over time in the US, which has a longer history of tracking sociological trends than most other countries. US studies provide valuable insights on expected outcomes in our society. A particular review focused on American children born around 1979, examining their socio-economic status against that of their parents in later life.
Contrary to expectations, the study found professions such as doctors and dentists, surprisingly, advanced significantly beyond their parents’ status. Those in the medical field didn’t tend to spring from affluent backgrounds but evolved into the nation’s wealthiest, usually born from families earning just over the average income. CEOs, while being in the upper echelons, likewise seem to be born of less affluent families, reinforcing the persistence of meritocracy in the corporate world of America.
Nonetheless, the notion that ‘like breeds like’ rings true with regards to the legal profession in the US. Lawyers and judges in the upper decile of wealth in the US, often come from families within the same wealth bracket, proving is a strong predictor for maintaining socio-economic status across generations.
As for young adults who opt for careers in the arts like writing, filmmaking or music, their earnings tend to fall substantially short of their parents’, especially if they aren’t truly exceptional, thereby experiencing a divide from the traditional career paths of their socially upward-moving parents.
In an evaluation of numerous professions, those who reported the steepest decrease in earnings compared to their well-off Baby Boomer parents were found to be primarily creators – designers, artists, musicians who predominantly are offspring of affluent households. The incomes of these individuals now rank, on average, 40% lower than their parent’s incomes. Children more inclined towards entering the arts, commonly emerge from middle-income households. Data from a separate study, tracking United States census statistics since 1850, showed that an individual is more probable to pursue a career in creativity when their total family income is on the higher end.
This finding brings to light an intriguing consequence known as the “Lost Einsteins” phenomenon. The ability to chase their dreams is more common among the children of parents belonging to the top one percent of income earners, making them ten times more likely to turn into inventors, compared to those from families with income below the median. The study suggests that this inequality might be more influenced by the environment rather than innate talent, insinuating that there could be a multitude of unrecognised Einsteins who could possibly be exceptionally inventive, but are compelled to make a living doing work they need to do, rather than what they desire.
Children from affluent families often have access to what could be termed as “kitchen table capital” — they become aware of a wider array of possibilities, mindsets, and alternatives in their own homes. There are people along their journey who could offer advice, they’re influenced by people with prior experience, and these children also have the advantage of financial backing. The term “pull”, which refers to their influential network that helps them succeed, is a term often attributed to these children.
On the other hand, young adults opting for the arts – such as writers, filmmakers, actors, dancers, musicians – unless they possess extraordinary talent, are likely to experience a significant drop in their income compared to their more traditionally upwardly mobile parents.
There’s a possibility that Ireland could follow a similar trajectory as the United States, where growth decelerates, social mobility hits a plateau and there’s a shrinkage in accessible opportunities. We are living in an era where career choices have a greater impact than they did in the last three decades, making the difference between those who thrive and those who could suffer a setback, potentially causing them to seek political support from unexpected quarters.