The Champions Cup’s most distinct characteristic during its 21-year reign from 1999 to 2000 was its home and away format, particularly seen during the consecutive December rounds. It was often a competition where the outcomes baffled spectators. A classic instance was in December 2003, when Ulster trashed Leicester Tigers 33-0 at the Ravenhill grounds, barely two months after Martin Johnson had spearheaded England to the World Cup victory.
However, the following week brought a taste of revenge for the Tigers when, during a game at Welford Road, Johnson scored his final Heineken Cup try in a 49-7 triumph, marking a 75-point turnaround within a mere week.
Although home advantage was a crucial factor in such situations, it didn’t always guarantee a win. As an example, ahead of Leinster’s home game against Leicester at Aviva this week, Leo Cullen most likely reminded his team of the 2013 end-of-year consecutive matches.
In the course of these games, Leinster gave their best performance at Franklin’s Gardens, with touchdowns from Jamie Heaslip, Eoin Reddan, and Brian O’Driscoll, alongside Luke Fitzgerald’s hat-trick, leading to a 40-7 victory. However, the tables were turned the following week when Northampton overcame Leinster 18-9 before a 47,000 strong crowd at Aviva. This loss led Leinster to an away quarter-final against the reigning champions, Toulon, which they duly lost.
The presence of a desire for revenge and perhaps subconscious complacency seem to be the pivotal factors in these outcomes. In sports, revenge, particularly when combined with injured pride, can be a potent motivator, especially when it can be acted upon within the week, keeping the desire to win fresh. Furthermore, teams that have soundly beaten their opponents may find it a challenge to avoid assuming their superiority just a week later. This may cause their fear of losing to fade or even disappear, which can sometimes spell the difference between victory and defeat.
A couple of seasons earlier, the Round of 16 saw back-to-back matches, each being two-legged. In half these match-ups, the victory fell to the same team in both legs, allowing them a comfortable stride to the finish. However, the remaining four matches saw victories being exchanged, with Munster and Toulouse successfully overturning first leg deficits opposite Exeter and Ulster, carrying them onto the quarter-finals. Harlequins and Bristol followed closely, very nearly mimicking their success.
In contrast, the following season saw matches in the Round of 16 reduced to a single leg, and each time, the host team moved forward. Curiously enough, none of these eight match-ups repeated from the pool meetings, while this current season has five Round of 16 matches that were replicated from the group stages. Early reception to this has largely been of disappointment, although as the matches near, disinterest has slightly dulled. If anything, these repeats only add an extra layer of fascination.
Game outcomes between certain clubs have varied drastically, with outstanding shifts noticed particularly within the Premiership. The assurance of no relegation has surely led to some heedless high-scoring games. This has led to some surprising statements from, of all platforms, TNT Sports, expressing regret that the Champions Cup is disrupting the progress of the Premiership.
Given the unpredictability of both the historical and current fluctuating forms, predicting the eight imminent ties, and particularly the revivals, appears incredibly challenging.
The curtain raiser on Saturday at 12:30pm presents a high veldt match with Lyon, a team currently underachieving nationally and faring better than expected in Pool A. The Bulls, recovering from their narrow 29-28 defeat in France last December, are expected to redeem themselves. Paddy Power is tipping the Bulls by 20 points and few would dream of opposing Jake White’s team.
Following this, an engrossing re-contest awaits between the Stormers and La Rochelle at 3pm in Cape Town. The defending champions, despite only two away victories this season, led 20-9 in their pool match at the DHL Stadium and sustained a couple of disallowed tries. Then Mannie Libbok stole a 21-20 victory for the Stormers with a touchline conversion in the final game throw.
Ronan O’Gara’s team are proven combatants in critical matches, having strategised similarly in the past. Intriguingly, they have been marked as three-point favourites. It would be unwise to write them off either.
“The anticipated game that will be vastly different from the group stages involves soaring Bordeaux Bègles and Saracens, who will lock horns at the bustling Stade Chaban-Delmas at 5.30pm. Their encounter in January at the same ground saw the star-spangled French team triumph, registering nine tries in what marked a historic 55-15 defeat for Saracens.
Such result hinted at an imminent downfall for the once-dominant English heavyweights. However, they made a strong comeback a fortnight ago, slicing Harlequins apart with a 52-7 win in front of a crowd of 80,000 at Twickenham. The Saracens then had to digest a 41-30 defeat in Northampton six days later.
The odds makers have taken a slightly cautious approach, favouring Bordeaux Bègles by eight points. Despite showing more fight this time around, the departure of Owen Farrell has dealt a blow to Saracens’ chances of bouncing back from a 40-point drubbing.
The victors of the Stormers-La Rochelle match are destined to face the winners of the Leinster-Leicester showdown at 8pm. Despite this fight looking like an expected deja vu (with Cullen’s group, the 19-point favourites), like Northampton in 2013, the Tigers are underdogs with nothing to lose.
Northampton, still the team in form in England, are the favoured side by five points in their home ground clash with Munster in the Sunday 12.30pm game. This favouritism stems from their narrow 26-23 victory in the dismal January drizzle at Thomond Park, a match where they managed to win with 14 players for over half of the game.
However, several influencing elements are at play. After all, this is the Champions Cup, and this is Munster, a team known for surpassing expectations more often than not.”