Rather than being an isolated incident not to be repeated, this strange and unpredictable event during the quarter-final weekend of the Champions Cup the past season could suggest the beginning of a new pattern. This particular stage in the competition frequently presents the most thrilling rugby and dramatic moments.
Consider the historical quarter-final weekend of the 2009-10 season where Clermont, supported by their passionate fans, took on Leinster on a beautiful spring Friday evening in Dublin. Michael Cheika’s reigning champions narrowly emerged victorious with a score of 29-28, an identical scoreline that was matched in the sunny Basque County the following day as Biarritz defeated the Ospreys in San Sebastián.
Munster defeated Northampton 33-19 at Thomond Park, and then Toulouse cemented their place in the semi-finals with a 42-16 victory over Stade Français, marking the weekend’s fourth home win. Though the format of the tournament has evolved over the years, since its inception in 1995-96 aside, the quarter-finals have remained consistently thrilling. There have been 27 instances of quarter-final rounds, with an notable outlier being the 2009-10 weekend, with an average of 56 points per game. This record was consistently challenged and finally surpassed in the following years.
The four quarter-finals last April once again saw home victories, with Leinster defeating Leicester 55-24, Toulouse vanquishing the Sharks 54-20, Exeter winning over the Stormers 42-17, and La Rochelle overcoming Saracens 24-10. Mirroring the favourable weather in 2010, the weekend saw a whopping tally of 247 points, averaging almost 62 per match, as well as 31 tries, marking a new record high for quarter-finals in the tournament.
Often, the semi-finals of competitions can be presented as quite cautious events, perhaps due to the heightened stakes as teams vie for a spot in the final, with every mistake potentially proving costly. However, this wasn’t the case on the last weekend of April in the previous year. Leinster trounced Toulouse in an impressive 41-22 victory at Aviva, while La Rochelle pummeled Exeter in a thrilling 47-28 match in Bordeaux. The combined number of points from all games (138, an average of 69 per game) along with a total of 19 tries in both matches were the greatest in the 28-year history of semi-finals.
This could suggest a shift in strategy where coaches and players feel more freedom and readiness to give their all, or as Alan Gaffney often said, to ‘never die wondering’. Even in high-stakes, knock-out rugby, it appears that teams are increasingly prepared to spurn a chance at getting three points from a goal attempt, choosing instead to focus on potentially securing seven from a corner.
There is, however, some puzzlement as to why World Rugby is once again considering significant law changes in the face of such high scoring trends.
Of course, history does play a part as well. Even though Leinster had hard times in the quarter-finals during the ’00s, with three losses out of their first five matches at that level, they have also celebrated some of their greatest victories in this round.
A prominent memory that comes to mind, is the stunning 41-35 victory against Toulouse in 2006, with Felipe Contepomi setting up one of their best tries, played right from their own goal line to the opposite end, and ended by Denis Hickie. Despite defeats to Toulon in 2014 and Saracens at a deserted Aviva in 2020, the current record for Leinster at the quarter-final stage is impressive, having played 18, won 13 and only lost five. Toulouse’s record stands at 20 quarter-finals, with 14 won and six lost.
Another insight is how home wins dominate in the knock-out stages of the Champions Cup. Considering Leinster’s last final as a home game, of the last 23 knock-out matches over two seasons, only two have been won by visiting teams – both narrow victories by La Rochelle. This recent dominance of home teams is a new development in the competition’s history. Prior to last season, each of the preceding four seasons had seen two away victories among the four matches, a trend not observed before.
Despite the fact that home victories account for nearly 75 per cent of total wins, this weekend’s top four home teams are expected to maintain this trend, according to Paddy Power. Among them, Toulouse, who has a high probability of 1-40 to win and a 21-point advantage over Exeter in the match taking place at Stade Ernest-Wallon on Sunday.
Bordeaux, although having lost key players like Damian Penaud and Matthieu Jalibert, are also favoured with odds of 1-12 and a 14-point advantage against the Harlequins. The latter, known for their dramatic performance fluctuations, are generally an iffy choice for bettors. Their chance of victory may be further dwindled due to the absence of Danny Care and Joe Marler, making a wager on Bordeaux a tempting idea.
Northampton also appears to unveil good value for bettors, having odds of 1-6, or a ten-point handicap, against the Bulls, who have decided to leave their leading players from the Springboks behind.
Meanwhile, it is perceived that the most competitive encounter in the quarterfinals will be between Leinster and La Rochelle. An unexpected twist is that Leo Cullen’s team has the odds of 1-4 and a seven-point advantage. Conversely, Ronan O’Gara’s team, whose success spans back to winning the semi-final three seasons ago and the previous two finals, has only 11-4 odds of securing a victory.
A one-point win would surely be a desirable outcome for either side, if offered, certainly making the upcoming matches thrilling.