/”Local and European Elections
In less than two months, the chief of Fine Gael will encounter his first ballot challenge with the impending local and European elections. The party’s victory of 255 seats in 2019, an increase of 20 from the 2014 election, ramps up the pressure. Despite recent polling dips, Sinn Féin anticipates to significantly surpass their 81-seat achievement in 2019. Fine Gael is putting forth over 340 contenders this time, but the party faces local challenges, particularly around issues like housing, health and immigration. Furthermore, predicting the outcome of the European elections can be challenging. With a population surge recorded in the latest census, Ireland gained another seat, elevating the total to 14. Fine Gael triumphed in the 2019 European elections, securing five out of 13 seats. Retaining these seats will be a herculean task for Harris.
Potential Resignations
Moreover, the decision of 11 Fine Gael TDs to bow out of the upcoming general election has created another predicament for Harris. There are murmurs that additional resignations may follow. For instance, outgoing Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, has hinted at contemplating his political future over the summertime. In a political landscape that favours current officeholders and values familiarity, the new leader will likely find himself persuading more co-workers not to abandon ship.
Budget 2025
The soon-to-come last budget of this governing term will place even more pressure on the new Taoiseach to boost expenditure and provide voters with a reason to remain loyal to Fine Gael. Some within the coalition, including Minister for Finance Michael McGrath, have expressed opposition to a spring support package for struggling business owners. With new procedures like additional sick pay and automatic enrolment pensions causing businesses to face added increases, Harris must strike a balance. He needs to keep his assurances to SMEs, taxpayers, and farmers whilst preventing the public funds from being drained.
Immigration”/
Recent survey data from The Irish Times Snapshot series indicates that immigration continues to be a contentious issue among voters. In a bold move, the government aims to transition from utilising private establishments such as hotels to accommodate refugees to implementing state-owned beds. However, this transition is set to take several years, with an estimated requirement of 35,000 beds by 2028. However, ongoing turbulence in Europe and potential re-election of Donald Trump in the United States may render these plans irrelevant.
Upcoming general election
Harris, the current leader of Fine Gael party, is preparing for the biggest challenge of his political career with the impending general election. Although he is expected to remain in power until next spring according to the current political climate, the multitude of resignations in his party has put his leadership into question. In the upcoming months, he will need to seek out new and more diverse candidates, including women, whilst still advocating Fine Gael’s achievements on key issues such as housing. With a record number of homeless people, it is clear Harris faces an uphill battle to convince electorates.