During the 11th day of the 11th month of the previous year, Sinn Féin members assembled for their ardfheis in Athlone, virtually at the heart of Ireland. The conference venue palpitated with an unfaltering optimism as around 1,500 delegates lauded the speeches by their prospective ministers in two prospective governments. The feeling of an impending breakthrough was ubiquitous and undeniable.
Michelle O’Neill, the leader of the party in Northern Ireland, was in attendance, though the term “Northern Ireland” was not explicitly mentioned by anyone. She was waiting for the anticipated resurgence of the Stormont Executive, which she was expected to lead as the inaugural nationalist First Minister since the establishment of the body by the Belfast Agreement in 1998.
Gerry Adams graced the occasion with long queues forming to get a signed copy of his most recent book. He sported a Palestinian keffiyeh. The older republicans, battle-tested individuals who had experienced conflict before finding peace and paving the way for the party’s political evolution, watched intently. They could not conceal their satisfaction with their efforts.
Will Sinn Féin vacate a seat in Laois? Can Brian Stanley maintain the post as an independent republican? What fate awaits Mary Lou McDonald and Sinn Féin as elections approach amid a tumult of crises? The party’s performance in handling the case of child abuse and resignations was critiqued by the Government, but defended by Mary Lou McDonald herself.
One of the attendees, reflecting on the circumstances after the event, remembered observing former Sinn Féin vice-president, Pat Doherty, wearing an expression of quiet contemplation, satisfaction even. Little wonder as after many years dedicated to the mission of seeing a United Ireland Socialist Republic, the once distant thought of his party leading the government in both north and south areas of the nation appeared to be materialising rapidly.
While prospects may have looked positive, the frontbenchers of the party cautioned against any premature celebration. The spokesperson for housing, Eoin Ó Broin, emphasised, “We’re not overlooking anything,” while health spokesman David Cullinane prudently added, “Indeed, we cannot be overconfident”.
Both individuals, along with everyone else in Athlone, could comprehend the figures in the public opinion surveys which demonstrated a significant lead for Sinn Féin, with poll numbers consistently in the mid-30s, a substantial advantage over Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Forecasts from Ivan Yates and Bertie Ahern presented a promising outlook, suggesting Sinn Féin could potentially secure 70 seats or win 40% of the votes. Irrespective of the election date, the party appeared set to gain the most number of seats in the new Dáil, likely by a considerable margin.
As usual, Mary Lou McDonald was at the centre of attention. After receiving an enthusiastic welcome from the delegates, she passionately stated her vision for a new Ireland during her keynote address. McDonald expressed her ambition to create an inclusive nation – harmonising the Orange and Green, nurturing confidence and compassion, showcasing talent and innovation, firmly staking Ireland’s position amongst world nations, and eradicating racism, Islamophobia, anti-semitism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia and sectarianism. She urged for unity, encapsulating all those who consider Ireland their home.
The delegates expressed thunderous approval, coupled with a palpable sense of relief as McDonald had recently shared her story of severe health issues over the summer. Rumours about her ill health had been circulating, but now McDonald appeared in radiant health, ready for the fight. The situation looked highly encouraging; promising numbers, a vibrant organisation, and a seemingly bright horizon.
However, behind closed doors, certain incidents were unfolding that would have disastrous consequences for Sinn Féin and McDonald. In the weeks preceding the ardfheis, party officials had a meeting with Niall Ó Donnghaile, the party’s Seanad leader, over a lodged complaint against him. Ó Donnghaile, an ex-Lord Mayor of Belfast, had moved from the north and built a reputation as a formidable parliamentary force. He had a prevalent online presence, often aggressively confronting Sinn Féin critics. His behaviour continued even till recently before his social media handles got shut down. In many ways, Ó Donnghaile encapsulated the new generation of Sinn Féin – young, eloquent, Irish-speaking, assertive, and comfortable in both the North and South.
In the course of events that unfolded in 2023, Ó Donnghaile was found to have sent inappropriate messages to a 17-year-old male member of the party along with another individual. Having faced previous mental health challenges, it was explained that he had taken a leave of absence from Leinster House due to a renewed mental health crisis, following his suspension from the party in September of that year. The disorder resurfaced as the party grappled with the complaints against him, which were reported to the PSNI, yet not the gardaí. The decision was later made that the PSNI would not spearhead a comprehensive investigation but, having deliberated, Sinn Féin concluded that Ó Donnghaile’s time with them was over.
In a gathering on the 5th of October, they communicated this decision to him. He promised to resign both from Sinn Féin and the Seanad, though the latter wasn’t publicly revealed for another ten weeks. Until the week leading up to Christmas, Ó Donnaghile was officially on sick leave from the Oireachtas.
When his resignation was finally publicised, McDonald praised his efforts in an official statement, making sole reference to his “health challenges”. This week, that very statement came back to haunt her as she claimed that she concealed the genuine reason behind Ó Donnghaile’s resignation out of concern for his mental health, and fears for his “safety” if it was disclosed. The hint was far from subtle, as she stated her persistent concern, which no longer hindered Sinn Féin and McDonald from revealing the truth.
In addition to Ó Donnghaile’s woes, other issues were starting to take shape for Sinn Féin as they geared up for the commendable ardfheis that took place less than a year ago. In October, on an unspecified date, an event took place involving the Laois TD Brian Stanley, who served as the chairman of the influential Public Accounts Committee (PAC), and a female member of the party. The incident led to the woman lodging a complaint in July 2024. As McDonald informed the Dáil, the matter “is very serious … and relates to Deputy Stanley’s personal behaviour, resulting in the complainant feeling ‘traumatised and distressed'”.
A probe was initiated by the party in August 2024, and during this time, Stanley made what has come to be referred to as a “counter-allegation against the complainant”. He was consequently advised to approach the gardaí but decided not to. The party’s inquiry carried on through August and September.
The investigation was completed and preliminary findings reached earlier this month, deeming that Stanley’s actions amounted to gross negligence based on the plaintiff’s testimony. The initial conclusions were distributed to the involved parties, allowing a one-week period for final comments or suggestions. The deadline was set to be this week’s Monday, but Stanley tendered his resignation on the prior Saturday night, vehemently criticising the party for putting him under an unfair trial.
Either the investigation of Stanley or the departure of Ó Donnghaile in and of itself would have caused turmoil within the party. Incredibly, these were only two out of four vexing issues faced by McDonald this week.
McDonald has been dealing with the fallout of Michael McMonagle’s case, a former party public relations officer who, after being expelled from the party and investigated by police for child sexual abuses, which he later plead guilty to, controversially received character references from two superior figures. While McDonald consistently denounced the situation, she has failed to acknowledge the party’s narrative’s doubtful elements – the acceptance of which defies belief – which has inevitably damaged the party’s credibility among the public.
Patricia Ryan, a TD for Kildare South, also resigned from the party last week amidst allegations of her being restrained and the party wanting her gone.
When McDonald spoke to the delegates in Athlone last year about the need to “carpe diem” and enact change promptly, all these incidents were private. However, McDonald was facing personal struggles, with her own health issues and her husband Martin Lanigan battling cancer in France. Politicians are skilled at segmenting their lives, but the stress for McDonald must have been intense. Whether this pressure played a role in the political blunders that were about to occur remains uncertain. But after the Athlone congress, things started going terribly wrong for Sinn Féin.
The unexpected riots that took place in Dublin on the 23rd of November left the nation in sheer shock; public transportation such as buses and trams were set ablaze, retail outlets ransacked and law enforcement officers chased by rioters. McDonald’s reaction, which consisted of a public call for the resignation of the Garda Commissioner and the withdrawal of confidence in the Justice Minister on O’Connell Street the next day, was evidently a miscalculation. The general populace extend their condemnation more towards the aggressors than towards the law enforcement or the government. The resultant parliamentary vote of confidence in Helen McEntee was seen as a significant political blunder.
Several months later, McDonald’s full-blown support for the doomed family and care referendums and her vow to revisit these referendums if they were to fail, represented another error.
Sinn Féin’s standing in the polls had started to decline sharply around this time. The imminent local and European elections provoked anxiety among the party, particularly as poll ratings began to veer away from their anticipated 30-35 per cent. The party found itself in disarray as their previously assured status began to waver. Nevertheless, the devastating outcome on the polling day was something they were not prepared for; the party recorded 11-12 per cent, marking a substantial reduction from its General Election performance in 2020 and massively down from its consistent poll numbers in the preceding year.
The aftermath brought about an agonising scrutiny which concluded with McDonald expressing the need to project her ‘authentic self’, a message she reported having received from party supporters. The implications of this were not instantaneously defined.
What can be said about Sinn Féin’s current predicament?
The reality of the matter is that the party confronts an array of challenges; some of their own making and others beyond their control, all of which have been further exacerbated by their handling. There’s certainly no denying that the party’s series of political blunders, including the poorly judged response to the Dublin riots and the needless endorsement of the failed government referendums, have negatively impacted the party. Together, these contribute to what can be deemed the biggest crisis under McDonald’s leadership.
Whilst discussions around immigration were growing louder in political conversations, it became a particular challenge for Sinn Féin. The party, known for its liberal stance on migration, was facing rising opposition from its working-class majority, who were increasingly averse to the topic. Anti-immigrant rallies now visibly attacked Sinn Féin, with participants casting adjectives such as “traitors” at McDonald and her outfit.
To counter this, Sinn Féin is creating a policy that permits it to advocate for migration while simultaneously protesting any proposed local asylum centers. The viability of this strategy is uncertain.
Yet, as Sinn Féin toiled over the migration subject, its fresh batch of voters began questioning if the party could deliver on its revolutionary promises that initially piqued their interest. This was primarily due to the party’s emphasis on resolving housing issues.
In the 2020 election campaign, McDonald shifted her promise of change to assure voters that although Sinn Féin was an emblem for revolution, beloved aspects such as Ireland’s successful economic model would remain untouched. However, for younger voters unable to enter the housing market and becoming disillusioned with the country’s economic model, Sinn Féin’s attempts to parade as a stable incoming government didn’t hold much appeal.
Therefore, it’s clear that Sinn Féin’s political struggles aren’t limited to short-term strategies; they relate to broader, long-term tactics about the party’s positioning and its key demographic. And with a general election looming, marred by ongoing controversy, Sinn Féin’s predicament only intensifies.
So which path will McDonald follow? How can she rejuvenate her party? It would be unwise to discount her just yet. With a steadfast base of activists and about 20 per cent voter support, Sinn Féin and its leader still have some fight left. However, it’s also true that McDonald is confronting her most taxing battle to date.