After more than eight years, Portugal is preparing to welcome its first centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro. However, his refusal to form a government with a prospective far-right partner has resulted in a delicate minority government. This month, following his election victory as the Democratic Alliance (AD) leader, Portugal’s president in the early morning hours of Thursday nominated Montenegro to replace the outgoing Socialist leader António Costa, who stepped down amid a corruption scandal.
Even though Montenegro’s dismissal of a governmental alliance with the increasingly influential far-right Chega party has resulted in the AD lacking a parliamentary majority, the centre-right’s key traditional adversary, the Socialists, and Chega have both signalled they will not contest Montenegro’s takeover of power. Nonetheless, they will oppose his strategies, highlighting Montenegro’s need for challenging negotiations with other parties to pass any law. Montenegro has labelled Chega as xenophobic and racist, further complicating proceedings.
André Ventura, Chega’s leader who secured 50 seats in the recent election, claimed earlier this week that Montenegro’s party would “be accountable for the instability it induces” if it did not form a pact with him. The AD party, although less extreme than many of Europe’s prevalent conservative parties, have pledged to break away from almost a decade of centre-left governance by lowering taxes and providing more support to the private sector.
Moreover, Montenegro, a 51-year-old lawyer from Porto renowned for his everyday persona, took over as the president of the main AD member, the Social Democratic party, in 2022, following his two-decade parliamentary tenure.
Upon receiving his nomination from President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Mr. Montenegro announced plans to visit Brussels on Thursday for a meeting with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. His government is expected to take an oath of office in the first week of April, following the inaugural session of the new parliament next week. One major challenge expected to face Mr Montenegro this year is the vote on the 2025 budget, which, if unsuccessful, may severely destabilize his government. However, his opposition might hesitate to instigate a subsequent election. Pedro Nuno Santos, the defeated Socialists leader, vowed to establish a robust resistance, indicating his improbable endorsement of an AD budget.
Nevertheless, providing a boost for Mr Montenegro, he reported that the Socialists, who hold 78 seats, would endorse modest changes in the 2024 budget. This previously ratified budget aims to increase salaries for police officers, educators, and medical professionals.
Mr Montenegro emerged victorious in an election characterized by voters’ fury about corruption, inadequately low wages and rapidly escalating housing prices. Coupled with this is the animosity towards select immigrants and the political elite, prompted by Chega.
During his campaign, Mr. Montenegro criticized the Socialists for squandering the parliamentary majority they achieved in 2022. He rejected their claim of ending austerity, equating high taxes and minimal public services to austerity.
In anticipation of the presidential announcement on Wednesday, he attempted to rebrand his forthcoming minority government by clarifying that the AD has a relative, albeit not absolute, majority.
Mr. Costa, the prior prime minister who had served since 2015, resigned in response to a prosecutors’ probe into allegations of corruption and influence peddling connected with significant investments. While he refutes any misconduct and has not been formally charged, prosecutors are still investigating. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.