Initial election predictions suggest that the fundamental coalition managing the European Parliament, albeit a bit shaken and leaner, will continue to stay united. The European People’s Party (EPP), the right-wing group, retain the position of the largest faction in the parliament, gaining additional seats. The Socialists and Democrats (S&D), conversely, have managed to hold onto their existing seats, while the centrist and liberal group Renew is reportedly bracing for a noticeable loss in seats.
Though the sweeping wave of extreme right-wing support is less catastrophic than anticipated, there’s no denying that the electoral trend has visibly swerved right. The governing majority, ensuring functionality and legal authority within the European Parliament, has managed to survive this electoral cycle. However, doubts are raised over how long it can last.
Over the past two decades, the combined seats held by EPP, Renew, and S&D have dropped from over 70% of the parliament to approximately 55%, as indicated by exit polls. Going back to the 2014 elections, EPP and S&D, historically, the pillars of parliament, won more than half of the total seats combined.
The primary concern was that a spike in support for more radical and hard right parties might risk destabilising the entrenched centre majority, possibly culminating in a legislative gridlock at the core of EU’s policymaking establishment. Nonetheless, exit poll statistics dispel such fears.
Von der Leyen’s rather controversial readiness to engage in a covert agreement to ensure the backing of Giorgia Meloni’s ultra-conservative party hasn’t been a secret either.
While the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy groupings, along with various other detached extreme right factions, have been predicted to cement significant gains – their seats increment won’t be sufficient to topple the system, assuringly. However, their ability to serve as a vehement, disruptive force against policy cannot be undermined.
The results of the recent European Commission elections will be scrutinised in detail by Ursula von der Leyen’s team in the forthcoming days. Von der Leyen, bidding for her second tenure as President of the Commission, requires support from both a qualified majority of the 27 national leaders and MEPs. With a closely contested vote anticipated in the Parliament, she must secure 361 out of the available 720 votes.
Several national political parties and individual MEPs from the dynamic trio of EPP, S&D, and Renew, have already declared their intent to rebel against their groups and oppose her. Thus, success for the German politician depends on nearly capturing 400 seats from these three central groups as a buffer. Pre-electoral predictions, based on exit polls and other data, showed that these groupings could potentially achieve around this number.
Notably, Von der Leyen hasn’t concealed her willingness to accept support via an under-the-table agreement from the Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s ultra-conservative party. Nonetheless, such a move risks losing Renew and S&D support. On the other hand, making a deal with the European Greens on the left could potentially alienate the right-wing faction within her own EPP, vociferous opponents of environmental policy over the past year.
The evolving political landscape shows an increasing shift towards the extremes, some voters register their dissatisfaction over national governments’ failings with protest votes. However, the more pressing issue isn’t if the Commission’s president loses her job–it’s that far-right, populist and ultra-conservative factions continue to amass plenty of support.
For the past decade, from the financial collapse and austerity measures to the migration crisis in 2015, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not forgetting the ominous threat of climate change, Europe has battled numerous challenges. An interpretation of the rising wave of nationalist conservative forces and far-right parties suggests dwindling faith in the EU’s capacity to tackle these and upcoming issues head-on. Figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, France’s Marine Le Pen, and Geert Wilders from the Netherlands are vocal in their belief that a stronger Europe requires less, not more, EU involvement.
Numerous individuals casting their ballots for extreme positions are often motivated by dissatisfaction with their national governments. This is especially evident in France, where Le Pen’s National Rally’s significant succes is largely viewed as a critique on President Emmanuel Macron, who hastily organised a parliamentary vote as a reaction to the public’s decision. This is less a reflection on Von der Leyen or Brussels.
The centre managed to withstand this situation, yet the overall progression seems to be taking a concerning turn, with the pace increasing. If traditional politics fails to combat the rise of right-wing populism, the upcoming election in half a decade could be the turning point where the operative majority of the European Parliament indeed crumbles.