The incessant rainy weather noted recently in Ireland is not just a perception – it’s confirmed by data. June of the previous year was exceptionally warm and arid, one of the warmest and driest registered. However, from July onwards, heavy rains took hold and have rarely eased up. The remaining time of summer 2023 turned into a downpour resulting in the autumn of the south and southeast regions setting new highs in rainfall records.
Winter offered no reprieve, hitting the western parts of Ireland harshly. Recurring storms and weather alerts lead to 2023 being ranked the third rainiest year since records began. This trend has persisted into spring, with the precipitation levels of March seeming likely to set new highs. The current rainfall level is already substantially above the monthly mean and we still have nearly a week left of the month. The average rainfall is currently 115 per cent more than typical levels.
On another worrying note, the amount of sunshine experienced was a paltry 50 per cent of the expected amount for the month. Unfortunately, the long-term weather predictions for the up-coming three-month period for Northern Europe anticipate that these weather conditions will endure.
Paul Moore, a climatologist from Met Éireann, identifies climate change, specifically the rising temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean, as the instigator of this weather pattern. The North Atlantic has had record-breaking sea temperatures for a year straight. This generates more warmth and humid air above the Atlantic, and as Ireland predominantly experiences south-westerly winds, these conditions lead to increased rainfall.
Climate change projections, moreover, predict not just hotter weather, but also rainier conditions for Ireland. As per Moore, an average upsurge of 7 per cent in annual rainfall from 1960 to 1990 figures has been foresighted and is currently ensuing.
Additionally, the standard North Atlantic sea temperature is generally 19.2 degrees. But the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported current sea temperatures as 20.4 degrees, making them 0.4 degrees higher than last year’s record levels.
Moore asserts that we’re already experiencing the impact of a shifting climate, pointing to a substantial escalation in temperatures. The intense focus on this topic by climate researchers verifies its importance in the current scientific discourse.
The El Niño event predicted for 2023-2024 is another concern. This phenomenon, one of the top five most severe on record, is characterised by sea surface temperatures that are higher than average. It significantly contributes to the increase in global temperatures across both land and sea.
A possible explanation for the North Atlantic’s increased temperature is the 2020 restriction on marine vessels using sulphur-laden fuels. While sulphur is known for its cooling effect on the atmosphere via sunlight reflection, the ban has unexpectedly influenced the temperature. Still, Moore emphasises that its effect on temperature is likely minor.
The sustained rainfall has led the Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) to warn that it’s reached a critical stage for Ireland’s crop cultivation sector, as farmers are unable to sow their crops. “Crop farming has suffered greatly since the previous autumn, incurring significant losses at the previous harvest,” claims IFA’s president, Francie Gorman. The constant rainfall has postponed planting and sowing schedules, and the current unpredictability of the grain markets due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine leaves farmers vulnerable.
Gorman urges the government to provide financial support to farmers challenged by the continual rain. He comments that the existing stress for farmers is considerable, and that the relentless wet conditions are making it particularly challenging to reach their fields to grow crops or feed their livestock.