In the forthcoming week, two pivotal elections are scheduled that bear colossal importance for Ireland. French citizens will cast their votes in the first of two rounds in their parliamentary elections on Sunday. Following this, on Thursday, the UK electorate will vote for a new administration, and the second French vote will occur on Sunday, July 7th. There is a probability of significant political alterations in our closest geographical and EU allies by the time the votes have been tallied, which will inevitably have implications for Ireland.
The situation has its positives and negatives. On the bright side, the imminent UK general election will likely result in a thumbs-down for the Conservative Party which, since 2015, has presided over a series of the most underwhelming British governments in history. These governments, helmed by figures such as David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak, have been record-setters in poor decision-making, incompetence, corruption, duplicity and insincerity.
But don’t just rely on my account. Trust what you perceive first-hand, or defer to the opinions of esteemed British academics, political analysts and commentators. ‘The Conservative Effect’, encapsulates the preceding 14 years of the Tory regime in a book that the Cambridge University Press will soon publish. Editors Anthony Seldon and Tom Egerton summarise the era as follows: “By 2024, Britain had fallen in global esteem, the union was weaker, societal equality was in decline in certain aspects, citizen protections had diminished, economic growth was languid with a gloomy forecast, public services under-performed and remained mostly unimproved, whilst the respect for British institutional bodies, including the civil service, judiciary, and the police, had fallen, as it did for other entities such as universities and the BBC, which were often the target of government, ministerial and right-wing commentator criticisms…”
The book concludes, “It is difficult to draw parallels with any previous Conservative, or other, government that accomplished so little or left the country in such a dire state at the end of its term.”
So, there it is – the worst government in history.”
The UK is poised to elect Keir Starmer, the head of the Labour party, with a clear-cut majority. Reflecting on Truss’s tumultuous tenure where she was blamed for devastating the economy and inadvertently paving the way for Labour’s resurgence, Starmer has followed one rule – avoid making mistakes at any cost. Adopting what critics call the ‘Ming vase strategy’, he has successfully steered clear of controversies, playing the safe game. Looking set to take on the mantle of Prime Minister next Friday, he will be the first Labour leader since Tony Blair in 1997 to win a majority.
How will this affect Ireland? During Blair’s rule, both UK and Ireland experienced a progressive and influential period of cooperation that hadn’t been seen since the latter’s independence. While the conflict has since dissolved, partly due to this close-knit bond, the future of Northern Ireland, its political landscape, the durability of its self-regulatory institutions and its constitutional path remain unsolved puzzles. It is well established, however, that Northern Ireland functions better when both governments work collectively on shared objectives, which was non-existent under recent Conservative leaderships. This collaborative spirit is set to return.
One of the party’s commitment includes scrapping the disputed Northern Ireland legacy bill, which the Irish Government has contested in the European Court of Human Rights. Although Starmer, a staunch union supporter, is unlikely to initiate a Border poll, he might lay down specific prerequisites to this effect. Officials from both parties urge for a re-establishment of the earlier productive relationship and close collaboration.
Now we proceed to the less promising part of the story.
Emmanuel Macron, the French President, appears poised for a political setback due to his abrupt decision to call for parliamentary elections. It appears his moderate political group is being trapped between the far-right and far-left elements of the political spectrum. Current polling data indicates that the far-right National Rally(RN), formerly known as the National Front, may become the dominant party, which could force Macron to appoint Jordan Bardella, the charismatic deputy leader of the RN party, as Prime Minister.
Should a far-right administration assume control in France, the European Union could experience a significant upheaval. Despite the RN no longer advocating a split from the EU due to the negative impact of Brexit, such a government would be sceptical about the EU, espouse nationalism, favour Russia, be anti-immigrant, and seek exemptions from many EU legislations. Therefore, under such governance, France’s central role alongside Germany in the EU might be compromised. The drive to create a more united EU with a focus on defence collaboration and “strategic independence” as a countermeasure for Russian hostility could lose steam. Thus, the nature of the EU would alter, potentially undermining its global position.
Further tension could arise between the European Commission and France due to France’s overspending and its habitual disregard for EU budget regulations. As a result, the country’s cost of borrowing already seems to be increasing. This development would be significant for Ireland, which only has to remember the last financial instability within the Eurozone.
An anti-EU French government would present issues far more serious than those caused by Brexit. While Britain’s exit was disruptive but not lethal, a Eurosceptic France could be likened to a destructive tumour within the EU’s core. From any perspective, this situation could spell trouble for Ireland.