Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, a German expert in polling and communication, conceptualised a theory in the 1970s known as the spiral of silence. This theory is still highly pertinent in today’s society, demonstrated in recent events such as the European Parliament elections and, on a smaller scale, local street elections.
The spiral of silence posits that individuals have an innate, albeit unconscious, sense of the direction of public opinion. If a person detects that their view diverges from the majority’s, they’re likely to refrain from expressing it, thus further reinforcing the majority consensus.
Yet, there are anomalies to this behaviour, labelled by Noelle-Neumann as the ‘hard core’. These are individuals who persist in maintaining and vocalising their unpopular viewpoint. They may, in time, become powerful enough to instigate a new spiral, elevating their contrarian opinions to mainstream acceptance.
The key here is not individuals changing their opinions but the suppression of their views. This, Noelle-Neumann believed, is why opinion polls were not always accurate. For instance, in 1965, poll data on voting intentions showed the ruling Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) and the opposing Social Democratic Party of Germany (SDP) in a tight race until the concluding weeks. Noelle-Neumann’s Allenbach Institute, on the other hand, asked participants to disregard their own opinions while predicting the public’s voting choice. As early as July, many predicted a comfortable victory for the CDU-CSU, which transpired.
This provided Noelle-Neumann with proof that while individuals might stay mum in a public setting, their actual votes may tell a different story.
Of note, Noelle-Neumann’s career wasn’t without scandal, stemming from her stint as a young journalist at the weekly paper, Das Reich, and her authoring of anti-Semitic content. She maintained that her survival depended on writing in such a manner, adding that she never sanctioned the Nazis’ brutal treatment of Jewish people. She also insisted that she was subsequently sacked and blacklisted by Goebbels.
Noelle-Neumann was perennially perturbed by how Hitler could have ascended to authority in Germany, her homeland. Today, as the far-right Alternative For Germany (AfD) rejoices in scoring more votes in the European Parliament elections than German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left SPD, and the far-right National Rally secures 30% of the French vote, her theories seem more crucial than ever.
Once deemed repulsive, certain ideologies are gaining acceptance once more. Quoted by The Guardian, Céline, a French public employee, used to conceal her backing for Marine Le Pen’s party at her workplace for fear of being labelled a fascist. Today, such accusations no longer plague her in the tranquil suburb where she lives. The rise in educators pledging support for the National Rally party demonstrates its increasing normalisation.
The influential writings of Noelle-Neumann hark back to a less complicated era, preceding the birth of social media. It was never foreseen that the leading propellant for the political fame of National Rally’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, would be TikTok. Amassing 1.5 million followers on the platform, Bardella’s appeal to about one-third of the youngest demographic was likely due to his TikTok posts not being awkward, unlike many other politicians.
Although Bardella is often depicted as the son of a single immigrant mother from a poverty-stricken Parisian suburb, the reality is that his divorced father funded his education at a private Catholic school. This institution had a student body largely made up of Muslim students or children of ambitious immigrant parents in 2014.
Currently, Bardella represents the polished, suitable face of far-right politics, broadcasting that Islamisation and mass immigration are wrecking France.
The far-right movement in Ireland, presently caught up in inner conflicts and divisions, doesn’t pose any immediate danger. However, the genuine risk lies in mainstream parties feeling the need to mimic far-right ideologies, such as adopting stricter immigration policies. This shift to the right by centrist parties merely catalyses the acceptance of anti-immigrant sentiment.
The reality is that our country’s economy would drastically fail without the influence of migrants. Asylum seekers make up a fraction of the immigrant population, and although our mishandling of them is notorious, a reasonable, efficient procedure, coupled with a functional housing system, would lessen this issue.
Equally significant are the anti-abortion voters who have found themselves politically marooned in mainstream parties, with the exception of Aontu. Such a gap has emerged as centrist individuals began feeling estranged from politics.
The mainstream media demeaned those with anti-abortion sentiments, labelling them as irredeemable individuals, which likely resulted in staunch members of the Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael parties becoming more receptive to extreme viewpoints. Similarly, labelling every rational concern about immigration as an act of racial discrimination might push supposedly centrist individuals towards far-right ideologies.
In this era where social media has the ability to amplify change at an unnerving pace, maintaining respectful personal interactions is crucial to counteract this rapid progression. According to Noelle-Neumann’s theory, however, we are the least forthcoming about our true beliefs when we’re concerned about potential adverse societal reactions. On another note, the normalisation of harmful attitudes should cause us even more concern than suppression of our views under social pressure.